Author: evencio.alvarez14@gmail.com
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Turkey Is The Best Performing Market This Year…
The securities we typically analyze are those that reflect the behavioral anomalies arising from largely emotional reactions to events. In the broadest sense, those securities reflect low expectations of future value creation, usually arising from either macroeconomic or microeconomic events or fears. Our research efforts are oriented toward determining whether a large gap exists between…
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Value Investing Q3 Letter Recaps: CACI, SE, NWSA
Our Value Investing Letter Recaps keep things simple. Each email focuses on three value investing hedge fund letters, three ideas, all digestible in roughly three minutes. Within each idea we answer four main questions: What does the business do? Why is it a good bet? Why does the opportunity exist? What is the prize if you’re right?…
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We’re Entering a Vicious Regime… [DIRTY DOZEN]
Reflexive processes tend to follow a certain pattern. In the early stages, the trend has to be self-reinforcing, otherwise, the process aborts. As the trend extends, it becomes increasingly vulnerable because the fundamentals such as trade and interest payments move against the trend, in accordance with the precepts of classical analysis, and the trend becomes…
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Bruce Kovner’s Trading Strategy Explained
Bruce Kovner has every attribute you’d want in a great trader. He generated a ~90% CAGR during his ten years at Commodities Corp. After that, he opened his own shop and compounded capital at ~21% for 28 years. Peter Brandt – one of the greatest traders of all time – calls Kovner “probably the best…
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Inflation Turned Me Into A Cannibal…
In his textbook study of historical inflation titled “The Great Wave,” David Fischer recounts a tumultuous period in Europe that reached its climax in 1316, writing: Then, inconceivably, torrential rains came again in 1316. The grain crop failed a third year in a row. Europe began to experience the worst famine in its history. When…
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Value Investing Q3 Letter Recaps: PX, TRMR, HGTY
Our Value Investing Letter Recaps keep things simple. Each email focuses on three value investing hedge fund letters, three ideas, all digestible in three minutes. Within each idea we answer four main questions: What does the business do? Why is it a good bet? Why does the opportunity exist? What is the prize if you’re right? Quick…
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Stephanie Pomboy’s 3 Factors Of Profit Recessions
Stephanie Pomboy is an independent market analyst and founder of MacroMavens LLC, a macroeconomic research firm.Pomboy believes we’re headed for a profit recession where companies will see their bottom lines take a significant hit. This will be driven by rising wages, rising interest rates, and rising commodity prices. The following essay examines each of these factors…
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Why Mexico Is Set To Outperform… [DIRTY DOZEN]
The most obvious way to do something complex, such as govern 100 million people or walk on two skinny legs, is to come up with a list of all the tasks that need to be done, in the order they are to be done, and then direct their completion from a central command, or brain.…
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Value Investing Q3 Letter Recaps: SECU, SSNC, META
Our Value Investing Letter Recaps keep things simple. Each email focuses on three value investing hedge fund letters, three ideas, all digestible in three minutes. Within each idea we answer four main questions: What does the business do? Why is it a good bet? Why does the opportunity exist? What is the prize if you’re right? Quick…
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Oil’s Fall Is Temporary… [DIRTY DOZEN]
The less successful you are, the more you’re going to have to work to correct the situation. If the portfolio is doing well, you’ll have to work less. There is an inverse relationship. ~ George Soros In this week’s Dirty Dozen [CHART PACK], we look at seasonality cycle composites, Bull regimes in Europe, check in…