Author: evencio.alvarez14@gmail.com
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100% Recession Odds… UPDATE [DIRTY DOZEN]
People form opinions at their own pace and in their own way; the notion that new information could be instantly processed was one of those ivory-tower assumptions that had little to do with reality. This gradual absorption of information by investors explained why markets moved in trends, as new developments were gradually digested. But market…
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Top Ten Hedge Fund Letters For Generating New Equity Ideas
Why Use Hedge Fund Letters? Hedge fund letters are a key part of our idea generation process at Macro Ops.I’m often asked how I come up with trading ideas. My usual response is that I do a lot of reading, talking to other traders, and thinking. I don’t have a single funnel for sourcing trades.…
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Value Investing Letter Recaps: Q3 2022
“When we find our treasure, we forget where we put our picks and shovels.” – Bert McCoy Our Value Investing Letter Recaps keep things simple. Each email focuses on three value investing hedge fund letters, three ideas, all digestible in three minutes. Within each idea we answer four main questions: What does the business do? Why is…
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A BIG Trend Is Brewing… [DIRTY DOZEN]
Personal intuition does not mean that you can translate last night’s exotic dream into some brilliant choice in the market. Professional money managers often seem to make up their minds in a split second, but what pushes them over the line of decision is usually an incremental bit of information, which, added to all the…
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Value Investing Letter Recaps: Q3 2022
“When we find our treasure, we forget where we put our picks and shovels.” – Bert McCoy Our Value Investing Letter Recaps keep things simple.Each email focuses on three value investing hedge fund letters, three ideas, all digestible in three minutes.Within each idea we answer four main questions: What does the business do? Why is…
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A Rare Buy Signal In Tech Stocks… [DIRTY DOZEN]
Understanding and dealing correctly with the trade-off between risk and return is a fundamental, but poorly understood, challenge faced by all gamblers and investors.~ Edward Thorp In this week’s Dirty Dozen [CHART PACK], we talk average bear markets, playing politics with national security, a rare breadth thrust in tech stocks, extreme short positioning in bonds,…
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Value Investing Letter Recaps: FERG, CDMO, EVBG
“When we find our treasure, we forget where we put our picks and shovels.” – Bert McCoy Our Value Investing Letter Recaps keep things simple.Each email focuses on three value investing hedge fund letters, three ideas, all digestible in three minutes.Within each idea we answer four main questions: What does the business do? Why is…
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Financial Conditions Are About To Get More Restrictive… [DIRTY DOZEN]
Implementation and flexibility. You need to implement a trade in a way that limits your losses when you are wrong, and you also need to be able to recognize when a trade is wrong. George Soros has the least regret of anyone I have ever met. Even though he will sometimes play up to his…
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Value Investing Letters: Q2 2022
“When we find our treasure, we forget where we put our picks and shovels.” – Bert McCoy This week we’re kicking off (or revitalizing?) a quarterly series I’m calling “Value Investing Letter Recaps”The piece congregates all my favorite investment ideas from my favorite value investor quarterly letters. I do the “heavy” work of distilling hundreds…
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A Mutant Selling Deformity…
“The more humans try to be half-gods, the more they become half-monsters.” ~ Nassim TalebTaleb’s “half-monsters” quip is in reference to a point he made about modern-day Olympians and how systematic overoptimization had corrupted the original spirit of the contest. He went on to write: “There used to be a distinction between an athlete representing…