Author: evencio.alvarez14@gmail.com
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The Bears Are Coming Out Of Hibernation… [DIRTY DOZEN]
“Comm. Corp. taught me to see the signal, like the signal, follow the signal. If you follow your system /methodology then over time your edge will kick in and you’ll end up ahead.” ~ Micheal MarcusGood morning! In this week’s Dirty Dozen [CHART PACK] we look at the narrative pendulum swinging closer and closer to a…
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Portfolio Performance Review: +31.3%ytd and some lessons learned
To others, being wrong is a source of shame; to me, recognizing my mistakes is a source of pride. Once we realize that imperfect understanding is the human condition, there is no shame in being wrong, only in failing to correct our mistakes. ~ George SorosI learned that everyone makes mistakes and has weaknesses and…
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The Naked Sniper… and other lessons on markets and investing
***Enrollment to our Collective ends this Sunday at Midnight. We won’t be running another one for a while, so if you’re interested make sure to sign up. Here’s the link.***I’m drinking some mead from the local meadery here in town, while sitting on my deck overlooking about a quarter-mile of forest and rivers that stretch…
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Nobody and Everybody is a Macro Trader
“People always forget that 50% of a stock’s move is the overall market, 30% is the industry group, and then maybe 20% is the extra alpha from stock picking.” – Scott Bessent This week we’re unpacking a critical (yet often misunderstood) aspect of investing: Nobody and Everybody is a Macro Trader. But before we do that, I…
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How To Analyze The Oil Market
***The Following is an excerpt from a Market Note recently sent to Collective members. Click here to learn more*** A short note on oil. Short notes are better than long notes. At least when it comes to analyzing a trade or positioning. If you have to Tolstoy the pitch then you don’t know what the…
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Life’s a Garden, You Dig? [DIRTY DOZEN]
“There was a decision point. He didn’t experience it as a decision point because for him it was obvious what to do. That’s what 20 years of experience buys you. You build up all these patterns, you quickly size up situations, and you know what to do, and that’s why it doesn’t feel like you’re…
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Q1 2022 Classical Charting Performance Review
“I will be first to admit that charts do NOT forecast price – they show path of least resistance and provide excellent risk management tool.” – Peter Brandt If you’re like most market participants, you’re probably worrying about navigating today’s turbulent environment. Maybe you’ve placed a few profitable trades, only to see most (if not all)…
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The Best Offense Is A Good Defense Company [Dirty Dozen]
“Seek facts diligently, advice never.” ~ Philip Carret Good morning! In this week’s Dirty Dozen [CHART PACK] we look at mean reversion and record hedging driving the indices higher, we pair this bullishness with some concerning cyclical action and a downright bearish indicator, before then taking a look at global defense spend, a defense contractor, and…
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Materials Making Moves [Dirty Dozen]
“Recently, I was at a money manager roundtable dinner where everyone was talking about “my stock this” and “my stock that”. Their attitude was that it doesn’t matter what is going to happen in the world because their favorite stock is generating free cash flow, buying back shares, and doing XYZ. People always forget that…
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Bull Thrusts, Breadth Thrusts, and Bull Bars [Dirty Dozen]
“In the final analysis, you need to have the courage to hold the position and take the risk. You need to be aware that the world is very sophisticated and always ask yourself: ‘How many people are left to act on this particular idea?’ You have to consider whether the market has already discounted your…