Author: evencio.alvarez14@gmail.com
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The Beginning of a Correction?
In this world, where the game is played with loaded dice, a man must have a temper of iron, with armor proof to the blows of fate, and weapons to make his way against men. Life is one long battle; we have to fight at every step; and Voltaire very rightly says that if we…
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HeadHunter (HHR): One Of The Best Network Effect Businesses I’ve Ever Seen
HeadHunter (HHR) operates an online recruitment platform in Russia, Kazakhstan, Belarus, and other Baltic countries. It offers employers and recruiters paid access to its CV database and job postings platform and job seekers and employers with a range of value-added services.HHR is the clear leader in the online recruitment platform industry in Russia, the remaining…
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Is It Time To Short Copper?
According to this theory, population growth in excess of the productivity gains of the land has several effects on social institutions. First, it leads to persistent price inflation, falling real wages, rural misery, urban migration, and increased frequency of food riots and wage protests. Second, rapid expansion of population results in elite overproduction—an increased number…
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Brand Capital: How Companies Create Lifetime Customers
Brand Capital & It’s Impact on Consumer Preferences Brands have existed for thousands of years, with the first iterations used for marking physical ownership of property. The whitepaper A Brief History of Brands And The Evolution of Place Branding summarizes the dawn of branding (emphasis mine): “For almost 4,000 years, brands have been used in order…
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A Dragon and a Hawk Walk Into A Bar
A few things.Asia Markets reported today that the CCP is cooking up a plan to restructure Evergrande into three separate entities, effectively ingurgitating them into the state, SEO style. As of now, this is only rumor, though a likely one. China is a special case. Yes, they’re a mess. Its GDP has been artificially inflated with unproductive…
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Mashup and New Math
I recently finished reading Joshua Ramo’s book The Age of the Unthinkable. Imagine if Per Bak’s Complexity, Martin Gurri’s The Revolt of the Public, and David Epstein’s Range got together and produced a love child. The Age of the Unthinkable would be its weird spawn. Ramos dives into the tech-enabled asymmetric power wielded by small terror…
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Record US Fund Flows
“The mind can be a wonderful tool for self-delusion – it was not designed to deal with complexity and nonlinear uncertainties. Counter to the common discourse, more information means more delusions: our detection of false patterns is growing faster and faster as a side effect of modernity and the information age: there is this mismatch…
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The Yen is Done Yawning…
“It might seem that if you have an edge, the way to maximize the edge is to trade as big as you can. But that’s not the case, because of risk. As a professional gambler or as a trader, you are constantly walking the line between maximizing edge and minimizing your risk of tapping out.”…
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eDreams Odigeo (EDR) Earnings & POWW Selling Pressure
This weekend we review eDreams ODIGEO (EDR) 1Q 2022 earnings and discuss POWW’s recent selling pressure. Before we dive in, here’s a snapshot of the moves we made in the portfolio this past week: Trimmed NTDOY and HCITY to free up cash to buy a starter position in Wheels Up (UP). You can read our most…
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Why Bond Yields Are Headed Lower…
“War, battles, and conflicts of all kinds (including poker) set in motion forces that quickly become unpredictable. Small defects or problems that are present at the beginning can quickly spiral out of control. And if small problems can do this, think what starting out with large problems means.” ~ Zen and the Art of Poker…