Author: evencio.alvarez14@gmail.com
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Time To Start Reloading Shorts?
The bear market bounce that I said was odds on two weeks ago in “Bulls Fighting to Save March” has happened. The SPX has jumped 25% off its 3/23 low.The question now is whether the bounce is: only getting started, midway, or run its course? Since we don’t yet have a crystal ball, we have…
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Gold: The Least Bad Alternative
Back in March 2019, I wrote a post titled “A Golden Macro Opportunity” discussing the extreme compression in volatility we were seeing throughout the precious metals complex and how this portended an equally extreme expansion in vol and a major move on the horizon.A little over a month later we saw gold break out giving…
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Monday Dirty Dozen [CHART PACK] #3
You don’t really trade the market. You trade your beliefs about the market. ~ Van Tharp Click here to get the Dirty Dozen straight to your inbox every Monday morning Good morning!In this week’s Dirty Dozen [CHART PACK] we look at current estimates of the severity of the coming recession, look at how those compare…
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Episode 19: What I Learned From Over 600 Blog Posts, The Science of Hitting
Episode 19 is here! I’m excited to bring y’all my conversation with Alex (aka, The Science of Hitting). Alex is a both a writer and investor. When he’s not thinking about which businesses to buy, he’s writing about them on GuruFocus.Alex has over 600 blog posts on GuruFocus to date, a feat few others can…
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Unpacking The Bill Ackman Saga
Bill Ackman’s on a crusade. No, he’s not parading his latest stock pick nor touting his next Herbalife short. Rather, he’s parading around in his global health professional/emergency crisis strategist hat.His cries reverberated through the walls of FinTwit. But not in a good way. Many investors called Ackman’s antics repulsive, childish and a sign of…
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Fresh Ideas From Great Investors & More COVID-19 Fallout
Didn’t March feel like an eternity? Not even the entire month. Just the last two and a half weeks. It’s amazing the power a constant stream of news has on your perception of time. I’m not sure we’ll have another month as crazy as March for financial markets.Then again, I bet that’s what people said…
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Monday Dirty Dozen [CHART PACK] #2
The people that I know who are the most successful at trading are passionate about it. They fulfill what I think is the first requirement: developing intuitions about something they care about deeply, in this case, trading… They develop a deep knowledge of whatever form of analysis they use. Out of that passion and knowledge,…
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The Fed’s Unlimited QE, PE Discrepancies and Michael Mauboussin’s Latest Paper
The FED threw the kitchen sink, refrigerator, dining room table and the chairs at this market on Monday. Markets didn’t seem to care, shrugging off another 3% after the news alert. Yet as I sit here typing, futures are locked limit-up.Crazy times.What did the Fed announce? Oh, you know. The casual UNLIMITED QUANTITATIVE EASING plan.…
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Bulls Fighting To Save March
***The following is an excerpt from a report sent out to Collective members Tuesday morning*** We have 5 trading days left in the month of March. As I pointed out in the Brief over the weekend, the bulls are trying to close the month above the 2018 lows (roughly 2,350 on the SPX) and reclaim…