Author: evencio.alvarez14@gmail.com
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Musings: Wealth, War & Wisdom and Japan’s Time to Shine
Alex here with your latest Friday Macro Musings. Latest Articles — A Monday Dozen — I take a look at bitcoin’s technicals, small-caps nearing a relative performance 70yr+ trendline, easy Q3 earnings hurdles, spiking global economic uncertainty and more.Welcome To The Value Hive — Our pseudonymous value expert, Mr. Bean, put out his first of…
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Welcome To The Value Hive
September 03, 2019This Day in History — On this day in 1789, the United States Congress established the US Treasury Department. Bonus points if you can guess who was the first to lead the department (answer at the end).Investor Spotlight— Michael Burry Goes Activist The man who sent The Short Heard ‘Round The World is at…
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A Monday Dozen [CHART PACK] #9
One of my strengths over the years was having deep respect for the markets and using the markets to predict the economy, and particularly using internal groups within the market to make predictions. And I think I was always open-minded enough and had enough humility that if those signals challenged my opinion, I went back…
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Musings: Hide Yo Kids… Economists Are Predicting a Recession! Plus, other Fun Facts
Alex here with your latest Friday Macro Musings. Latest Articles — A Monday Dozen [CHART PACK] – In this week’s Monday Dozen we take a look at short-term sentiment (still too bullish!), longer-term sentiment (getting pretty bearish), indications of a weakening US economy, credit stress, a long opportunity in the pound, a crowded consensus, and 250-years of…
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Adaptability Versus Optimization: The Cockroach Approach
As we trudge onward in the longest bull market in US history, I thought it wise to share with you a section from an old article written by Richard Bookstaber, titled “Risk Management in Complex Organizations”.The article talks about risk. Particularly, that most pernicious kind of risk… The kind we can’t foresee.Volatility selling, FAANG hodling,…
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A Monday Dozen [CHART PACK] #8
I have a friend who has amassed a fortune in excess of $100 million. He taught me two basic lessons. First, if you never bet your lifestyle, from a trading standpoint, nothing bad will ever happen to you. Second, if you know what the worst possible outcome is, it gives you tremendous freedom. The truth…
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Musings: Memes and Violence, India on the Ropes, and Vol Talk
Alex here with your latest Friday Macro Musings. Latest Articles — A Monday Dozen [CHART PACK] – In this week’s Monday Dozen I take a look at anxious markets and discuss the fuss over the inverted yield curve, plus we check in on liquidity, sentiment, and relative valuations and end with a sector that has all three…
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How to Identify the Consensus
Here’s John Percival, writing in his book The Way of the Dollar, describing how to identify the Consensus and act as a Contrarian. “Remember the last time you sold a currency at what proved to be the bottom, or bought at the exact top? That wasn’t just bad luck — nor even just foolishness. You…
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A Monday Dozen [CHART PACK] #7.5
Technical analysis reflects the voice of the entire marketplace and, therefore, does pick up unusual behavior. By definition, anything that creates a new chart pattern is something unusual. It is very important for me to study the details of price action to see if I can observe something about how everybody is voting. Studying the…
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Musings: President Ivanka, Recession Hysteria, and How Honeybees Make Decisions
Alex here with your latest Friday Macro Musings. Articles I’m reading — “The year is 2030 and the S&P just broke the 1 million level following an algo-induced short squeeze after Trump tweets, “President Ivanka headed to China to negotiate an even better deal for USA. Chinese seriously intimidated because she’s hot.” It has now…