Author: evencio.alvarez14@gmail.com
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The Danger of “Vision macro” and How to Avoid It
“Our knowledge can only be finite, while our ignorance must necessarily be infinite.” ~ Karl PopperSomething that’s helped me in my trading journey is adopting the practice of multivariate critical thinking (MCT). MCT is the application of considering multiple hypotheses and then dispassionately applying critical judgment to each. It requires updating the probabilistic weighting for…
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Jim Simons and The Four Sources of Alpha
Tyler here with your latest Friday Macro Musings…As always, if you come across something cool during the week, shoot an email to alex@macro-ops.com and we’ll share it with the group. Latest Articles/Videos/Podcasts —
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A Tactical Short in Bonds
I was going to send out a note today where I dissect one of my favorite Bruce Kovner quotes and then get into how we can use Brier scores to make better probabilistically weighted market bets and combat two of our worst enemies, overconfidence and confirmation bias — the recent Invest Like The Best podcast…
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Anchors Away: My Three Favorite Shipping Ideas
Deep value is found at the corner of “yucky” and “no way in hell” and over the last twenty years, shipping stocks have exhibited those two characteristics a hundred times over. Alex did a great job summarizing the macro view of the shipping market in his latest article, which you can read here. To brush…
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A Golden Macro Opportunity
Yesterday, I talked about the massive vol compression I’m seeing across a number of major macro instruments — most notably FX dollar pairs and gold — along with how these compression regimes set the stage for expansionary ones (i.e., Giant Macro Trends).Here’s the chart of gold again which shows its volatility (as measured by the…
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Tesla Short Catalysts, Eurodollar Threats and Uranium with Biren Shah
This week I (Chris) speak with fellow Operator, Biren Shah who currently runs a family office. AppleGoogle PodcastsSpotifyOvercastPocket CastsAnchorStitcherBreakerRadio PublicBiren is very bearish on Tesla, and in this show he breaks down his core reasons why. Biren has written a lot more on this subject on his blog which you can find here. After Tesla…
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There’s a BIG Macro Move Brewing in Markets
A favorite market-related book of mine is Hedgehogging by Barton Biggs. If you haven’t read it, I highly recommend you do so. It’s excellent. One of the many entertaining stories Biggs shares in the book is a conversation he has with a very successful Macro Fund Manager, named “Tim”.Tim shares with Biggs a key pillar of…
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Yield Curve Inversion: Why This Time is Different
It’s happened… The 10yr/3m yield curve has inverted. The party is over folks. Sell your stocks, horde your cash, pack your bags and go home. Recession is imminent… The mainstream financial news and twitter “market experts” have nailed it. The top is in.It’s nice knowing that calling a recession is this easy. There’s really nothing…
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A “Crazy” Deep Value Play Along With Some Other Stuff
Alex here with your latest Friday Macro Musings…As always, if you come across something cool during the week, shoot an email to alex@macro-ops.com and we’ll share it with the group. Latest Articles/Videos/Podcasts —Value Ventures: A Prologue — Our value expert Mr. Bean talks a little bit about his value investing philosophy and lays out the…
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Shippers – Bottom Fishing With Alex Barrow
Today I speak with Alex Barrow, founder of Macro Ops and our resident bird fan, or as he prefers ornithologist. Anywhoooo- Alex has shippers on his mind. You can read more about his thoughts in his most recent research report here.If you’ve listened to Alex and I speak before, you know that we tend to…