Author: evencio.alvarez14@gmail.com
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It’s A Trader’s Market Now
February volatility has clearly signaled a regime change. We’re no longer in a market that rewards ‘hodlers’ to think less and hold more. It’s a traders market now. The S&P finally snapped that ridiculous no pullback streak we’ve all been watching on Fintwit. (Picture below via Bespoke.)And that break caused the largest short volatility unwind…
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The Li Keqiang Index, Machine Learning, And Some Advice From Munger
Tyler here with this week’s Macro Musings.Article I’m reading —Last week Alex talked about the developing weakness in the Li Keqiang Index and what that means for the macro environment in the months ahead. The CME group wrote a fantastic article about this index that dives into its components, its history, and its uses. (Link…
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The Battle of the Little Bighorn
Tyler here with this week’s Macro Musings.Macro volatility continues to rage on. Fed chair Powell has a tough job ahead of him. If he makes one wrong move, the bond/stock bubble will burst and ruin all the passive ‘hodlers’ with it. We’re leaving the era of buy and hold and entering into a trader’s market.…
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The Good, The Bad, And The Middle – Possible Macro Paths Forward
Let me share one of my favorite trading quotes with you, it’s from Market Wizard Bruce Kovner. He said (emphasis mine): One of the jobs of a good trader is to imagine alternative scenarios. I try to form many different mental pictures of what the world should be like and wait for one of them…
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The Makings of Master Traders, Kahneman Talking Decisions, And A Tax Avoidance Value Play
Alex here with this week’s Macro Musings.As always, if you come across something cool during the week, shoot me an email at alex@macro-ops.com and I’ll share it with the group.Recent Articles/Videos — Fed 101 – AK covers the basics of how the Federal Reserve operates from its dual mandate to its three policy tools. Another…
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Totis Porcis: The Art of Cashing in on Fat Tail Investments
The following is an excerpt from Barton Bigg’s book, Hedgehogging, where he relates a conversation with “Tim”, a successful macro investor. Tim works out of a quiet, spacious office filled with antique furniture, exquisite oriental rugs, and porcelain in a leafy suburb of London with only a secretary. My guess is he runs more than…
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The Management Principles of George Soros
In this third article, we will cover the management principles of this legendary firm. (I) Be Part Of A Global ‘Intelligence Network’ One advantage that the Palindrome had was his ‘intelligence network’. His rise from obscurity in the early 1960s to commercial stardom on Wall Street brought him the powerful perks of wealth and fame.…
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Another Lesson In Position Sizing From The Volpocalypse of 2018
Most famous fund failures have leverage at their core. That’s the true culprit for disaster — not the actual trade ideas. Bad position sizing kills. Long Term Capital Management’s strategy involved scanning the world for bond spreads that diverged from historical values — something known as convergence trading. When spreads diverged from their means, LTCM…
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From Dalio To Dow To Thucydides And Beyond
Alex here with this week’s Macro Musings.As always, if you come across something cool during the week, shoot me an email at alex@macro-ops.com and I’ll share it with the group.Articles I’m reading —Dalio’s been doing a lot of blogging lately, which is nice. He’s a pretty smart dude. His latest write-up is on the short-term…
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Withering Wages, A Poker Pro, and Lucid Dreaming with Richard Feynman
Alex here with this week’s Macro Musings.As always, if you come across something cool during the week, shoot me an email at alex@macro-ops.com and I’ll share it with the group.Recent Articles/Videos — The Market Drop — AK explains the reasoning behind this recent price route and takes a look under the hood of the economy…