Author: evencio.alvarez14@gmail.com
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Blind Central Bankers and Quantum Overlords (Macro Musings)
Alex here with this week’s Macro Musings.As always, if you come across something cool during the week, shoot me an email at alex@macro-ops.com and I’ll share it with the group.Our Recent Articles — The Global Macro Renaissance: A paradigm shift is coming that’ll bring the resurgence of global macro trading. The Randomness Of Return Distributions:…
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The Global Macro Renaissance
John Curran was the former head of commodities at Caxton Associates — the hedge fund founded by market wizard Bruce Kovner. He wrote a great article in Barron’s titled The Coming Renaissance of Macro Investing. In the piece, John writes about what he sees as the coming paradigm shift in markets and how this shift…
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Daily Speculations: Unveiling the Randomness in Investment Returns
As traders, one of the most important traits we can adopt is humility. We have to embrace our fallibility. Markets are complex systems. We cannot know all the relevant variables and causal relationships. Therefore, when we make a market prediction or place a trade, we can’t truly know if the subsequent outcome occurred for the…
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Dr. Dre and SiFy (Macro Musings)
Alex here with this week’s Macro Musings.As always, if you come across something cool during the week, shoot me an email at alex@macro-ops.com and I’ll share it with the group.Our Recent Articles — The Best Trading Podcasts For Global Macro Investors: The list of podcasts we listen to each month. We’ve got both process and…
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The Wealth S-Curve That’s Driving Current Global Macro Trends
The graph above shows a logistic function that maps out a sigmoid curve… otherwise known as an S-curve. This function was popularized by mid-19th century scientist Pierre Francois Verhulst who applied it in his study of population growth. Verhulst found that population growth follows a certain S-curve. It grows at a steady state until it…
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Separating Signal From Noise In Markets
There’s not much information to get. The most important variables in global macro are the economic conditions and how central banks respond to those conditions. To get that information, I read the paper, look at the data, watch what the officials say, and try to read between the lines. From an actual trade point of…
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A.I. Bets & All-Time Low Bond Volatility (Macro Musings)
Tyler here with this week’s Macro Musings.Just a reminder, we’re releasing the newest issue of our Macro Intelligence Report (MIR) early next week. In it we’re covering a basket of agricultural stocks that are ready to rip just like our IPI play (if you don’t know what I’m talking about, read our article below). Phase…
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Leveraging the Macro Time Frame in Market Analysis
There is timing in the whole life of the warrior, in his thriving and declining, in his harmony and discord. Similarly, there is timing in the Way of the merchant, in the rise and fall of capital. All things entail rising and falling timing. You must be able to discern this. In strategy, there are…
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Preparing For The Macro Regime Shift To The “Overheat Phase”
Legendary speculator, Jesse Livermore, credits the following realization with transforming his trading game and turning him into one of the greats. He said: Tape reading was an important part of the game; so was beginning at the right time; so was sticking to your position. But my greatest discovery was that a man must study…