Author: evencio.alvarez14@gmail.com
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Trading A Le Pen Win In The French Elections
Success in the markets requires thinking in possibilities. A great trader understands the permanent information deficit he’s faced with and why it makes market prediction impossible. All he can do is plan for a range of reasonable outcomes and adjust his strategy as new information presents itself. In the latest issue of our Macro Intelligence…
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Populism & Europe’s False Trend
One of my favorite sci-fi series is The Foundation Trilogy by Isaac Asimov. The book was first published in 1951 and is a grand “space opera” that takes place in the distant future. At the heart of the series (and what makes it so interesting) is the fictional philosophy of “psychohistory”. Psychohistory is a blend…
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Traders As Modern Day Hunter-Gatherers
Entering the market is like entering an entirely different world. This world functions nothing like modern society. Modern society has laws and social norms in place to protect you. If you screw up, you have a safety net. People will generally reach out and help. Modern society is cushy. Even people who are disabled, suffering…
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Markets as a Range of Reasonable Opinions
The following is from The Philosopher in Drobny’s classic The Invisible Hands (emphasis mine): Some people can trade markets using only numbers, prices on a screen but this approach does not work for me. The numbers have to mean something — I have to understand the fundamental drivers behind the numbers. And while fundamentals are…
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Is The Dollar About To Break?
A couple of my favorite quotes from legendary trader Bruce Kovner are: What I am really looking for is a consensus the market is not confirming. I like to know that there are a lot of people who are going to be wrong. As an alternative approach, one of the traders I know does very…
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Bill Ackman Finally Pukes: Beware Of False Narratives
A year ago we wrote about why Bill Ackman should learn a bit of technical analysis. We weren’t suggesting he become an Elliott Wave nut or anything, but that he should adopt the risk management philosophy of a technician. TA clearly defines when to exit a trade. And with this clarity comes superb risk control…
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Lessons From A Trading Great: Jim Leitner
Jim Leitner is the greatest macro trader you’ve never heard of. He was once a currency expert on Wall Street, pulling billions from the markets, but now he plays the game through his own family office.Leitner understands the Macro Ops “go anywhere” mentality better than any other trader (excerpts are taken from Drobny’s “Inside the…
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A Dovish Hike and a Third Step Before a Stumble?
The following is an excerpt from our weekly Market Brief. If you’re interested in learning more about Market Briefs and the Macro Ops Hub, click here.The Fed hiked on Wednesday as expected, bringing the Fed Funds rate to a whopping 1%. The market, with its rose colored glasses in full effect, interpreted the hike as…
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Flying Too Close To The Ground
It’s not how close you get to the ground, but how precise you can fly the airplane. If you feel so careless with your life that you want to be the world’s lowest flying aviator, then you might do it for a while — but then a great many former friends of mine are no longer with us,…
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A Review Of George Soros’ “The Way Ahead” Lecture
The following review is straight from Operator James, a member of the Macro Ops Hub. With my TV broken for the last several months, and a useless repairman backed by a company going out of business, I’ve had a lot of time to devote to learning and thinking. Recently I realized I need to dig…