Category: Best Of
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Amos Hostetter Trading Strategy Explained
Amos Hostetter cofounded Commodities Corporation (otherwise known as CC) along with Helmut Weymar back in 1969. CC is the trading shop that produced more legendary trading talent than the Yankees have All-Stars. Alumni include: Bruce Kovner, Michael Marcus, Paul Tudor Jones, Ed Seykota and more…Hostetter was considered the wise sage and mentor of the group.…
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Lessons From A Trading Great: Jim Leitner
Jim Leitner is the greatest macro trader you’ve never heard of. He was once a currency expert on Wall Street, pulling billions from the markets, but now he plays the game through his own family office.Leitner understands the Macro Ops “go anywhere” mentality better than any other trader (excerpts are taken from Drobny’s “Inside the…
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How The Capital Cycle Works
The capital cycle is one of the most important economic models to understand. In short, the capital cycle refers to how investments flood into high-return businesses during economic upswings and then flee when returns fall below the cost of capital. Let’s dig into how this works by first discussing another cycle: debt. Bridgewater’s Debt Cycle…
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Expected Value (EV) & Bayesian Analysis In Trading
An alternative title for a trader is “professional uncertainty manager.” Trading is a business of possibilities, not certainties. Despite our best efforts to predict financial markets, we’ll inevitably be wrong time and time again. Many of our bets will lose purely due to bad luck or unforeseen circumstances. It doesn’t matter if they were objectively…
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Best Global Macro Trading Books: A Reading List for Investors
The successful macro investor must be some magical mixture of an acute analyst, an investment scholar, a listener, a historian, a river boat gambler, and be a voraciousreader. Reading is crucial.~ Barton Biggs After being asked countless times about the best books to read when it comes to markets and trading, I finally decided to create…
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Achieve Market Mastery Through Fallibilism And Perspectivism
Macro Ops is dedicated to one thing: mastering the markets.But the path towards mastery isn’t linear. It’s a messy one that requires constant iteration, observation, backtracking, and improvement. Ray Dalio has a good visual for it: The loops in the path are the necessary pain points that come with the journey. In order to push…
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Why Our Evolutionary Biology Works Against Us In Markets
“I think investment psychology is by far the most important element, followed by risk control, with the least important consideration being the question of where you buy and sell.” ~Tom Basso, Market Wizard A strong psychological foundation is the key to successful investing. The human mind is a powerful, complex tool that quickly turns into…
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The Fallacy of Market Prediction
Spoon boy: Do not try and bend the spoon. That’s impossible. Instead… only try to realize the truth. Neo: What truth?Spoon boy: There is no spoon. Neo: There is no spoon? Spoon boy: Then you’ll see, that it is not the spoon that bends, it is only yourself. ~ The Matrix Traders and investors are…
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Long Term and Short Term Debt Cycles: A Comprehensive Guide
Conventional economic “wisdom” fails to understand the role of credit/debt in our market based system. Mainstream economics completely neglects to understand not only credits affect on demand, but also how this credit demand fluctuates in both short and long-term cycles. Now when I say cycles, don’t roll your eyes and think I’m some tinfoil hat…
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Lessons From a Trading Great: Ray Dalio
Ray Dalio is the founder of Bridgewater. Two years ago, Bridgewater surpassed Soros’ Quantum fund for the title of most profitable hedge fund of all time; returning over $46 billion since inception. In your author’s humble opinion, Ray Dalio is one of the more original thinkers alive today. In the investing world he stands alone…