Category: Research

Some narratives are contagious because they seem to offer a confirming fact. We can say with some accuracy that most people put on a show of their own knowledgeability and try to conceal their ignorance of millions of facts. Hence, narratives that seem contrary to prevailing thought may have lower contagion rates and not result…

***This excerpt from a Market Note sent to Collective members last Thursday summarizes our risk-on thesis that we’ve been pushing for the past month. Enrollment to our Collective runs till Sunday. If you’d like to join, click the link below and get after it. Don’t hesitate to shoot me any Qs!** Join The Collective The…

“Incorporating percentages or ranges of alternatives into the expression of our beliefs means that our personal narrative no longer hinges on whether we were wrong or right but on how well we incorporate new information to adjust the estimate of how accurate our beliefs are.” ~ Annie Duke, “Thinking in Bets In this week’s Dirty…

“If you want to watch CNBC like the pros do, turn the sound off!” ~ Walter Deemer In this week’s Dirty Dozen [CHART PACK] we look new highs in gold, coiling silver that’s near historic relative lows versus gold, and a SOFR market that’s close to pricing in a recession, plus more…  1. Gold put…

On Thursday, our sitting buy-stop order in gold was hit, adding to our long position for the fourth time since we started this most recent bull campaign in precious metals. The arrows below show our time-stamped slack alerts to the Collective for both buy orders (green) and profit-taking (red). View fullsize Our book is also…

“When you understand how fear operates in your trading and have conquered it, you will be able to see how fear operates in the market as a whole and then be able to anticipate the group’s reaction to certain kinds of information.” ~ Mark Douglas, “The Disciplined Trader”  In this week’s Dirty Dozen [CHART PACK]…

View fullsize This is a Necker Cube.  It’s an optical illusion. A simple two-dimensional wire-frame drawing of a cube that was first published by the Swiss crystallographer Louis Necker.  It’s an ambiguous drawing with no visual cues as to its orientation. So it can be interpreted in one of two ways (1) with the lower…

“Part of what people insufficiently distinguish, or confuse, is the difference between frequency and magnitude — that is, how often you’re right or wrong versus how much money you make when you’re right and how much money you lose when you’re wrong” ~ Bill Miller In this week’s Dirty Dozen [CHART PACK] we look at…

“This plan, of betting only at a level at which I was emotionally comfortable and not advancing until I was ready, enabled me to play my system with a calm and disciplined accuracy. This lesson from the blackjack tables would prove invaluable throughout my investment lifetime as the stakes grew ever larger.” ~ Edward Thorp…

“You may not be able to control the markets, but you can control your perception of them in order to achieve a higher degree of objectivity, resulting in a higher degree of shared reality with the markets.” ~ Mark Douglas In this week’s Dirty Dozen [CHART PACK] we look at a Trifecta Lens buy signal…