Category: Research – Alex

I think the dominant note of our time is unreality. The thin air of the music we all heard has died away. It lasted a long time, certainly several decades, but the best rule is: When the music stops, forget the old music…In good times it’s not hard to make money, but in times of…

Remember the last time you sold a currency at what proved to be the bottom, or bought at the exact top? That wasn’t just bad luck — nor even just foolishness. You and the crowd caused the bottom, or the top.  ~ John Percival, “The Way of the Dollar” In this week’s Dirty Dozen [CHART…

Price makes news, not the other way around. A market is going to go where a market is going to go. ~ Paul Tudor Jones (h/t @MikeWShell) In this week’s Dirty Dozey [CHART PACK], we look at a triple-barrelled buy signal in risk-assets and go through last week’s rare multiple breadth thrusts and what they…

When a new bull market is launched it is *not* typically widely accepted or believed at the outset. A new bull market needs a “wall of worry” to climb. So rather than cheering for a Fed Pivot, sentiment should turn deeply skeptical of the Fed’s efforts: “The Fed will be pushing on a string” rather…

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***Note: As a thank you for following along with us this year, we’re releasing three premium reports that were previously only available to our Collective members. The following is report number two.This research is part of the work our team is doing to prepare for the 2023 Macro Regime Shift. If you want to protect…

I’m leaning short on the equity markets. I think the upside/downside [risk here] just doesn’t make sense to me when I have so many central banks telling me what they are going to do, This is a tough level [for the S&P 500] to talk about robust returns. [Central banks] are going to keep rates…

 What are the factors that gave rise to investors’ success over the last 40 years? We saw major contributions from (a) the economic growth and preeminence of the U.S.; (b) the incredible performance of our greatest companies; (c) gains in technology, productivity and management techniques; and (d) the benefits of globalization. However, I’d be surprised…

The securities we typically analyze are those that reflect the behavioral anomalies arising from largely emotional reactions to events. In the broadest sense, those securities reflect low expectations of future value creation, usually arising from either macroeconomic or microeconomic events or fears. Our research efforts are oriented toward determining whether a large gap exists between…

Reflexive processes tend to follow a certain pattern. In the early stages, the trend has to be self-reinforcing, otherwise, the process aborts. As the trend extends, it becomes increasingly vulnerable because the fundamentals such as trade and interest payments move against the trend, in accordance with the precepts of classical analysis, and the trend becomes…