Category: Research – Alex

In all markets, price extremes are usually attended by a consensus that the trend, be it up or down, will continue; and by a peak of speculation in line with the trend. Hence the excruciating paradox of financial markets, that sentiment is most bullish at the peaks when prices have only one way to go…

When a story shows up on a magazine cover, the biggest profits have generally been made. That’s why in our investment process at MO, we’re always looking for “page sixteen” stories. The basic idea is this: You don’t make money from stories on the front page. You make money from the stuff on page sixteen……

***The following is an excerpt from my Weekly Market Prep note and chart pack sent to Collective members every Sunday. If you’re interested in learning more about our premium research service, click this link here. We’re running an enrollment period that will go until Sunday. Hit me up if you’ve got any questions*** Does your…

For those who ignore the energetic and material imperatives of our world, those who prefer mantras of green solutions to understanding how we have come to this point, the prescription is easy: just decarbonize—switch from burning fossil carbon to converting inexhaustible flows of renewable energies. The real wrench in the works: we are a fossil-fueled…

Tape Reading is rapid-fire horse sense. Its object is to determine whether stocks are being accumulated or distributed, marked up or down, or whether they are neglected by the large interests. The Tape Reader aims to make deductions from each succeeding transaction – every shift of the market kaleidoscope; to grasp a new situation, force…

“Probability is not a mere computation of odds on the dice or more complicated variants; it is the acceptance of the lack of certainty in our knowledge and the development of methods for dealing with our ignorance.” ~ Nassim Taleb, Fooled By Randomness In this week’s Dirty Dozen [CHART PACK], we talk about a housing…

“As an alternative approach, one of the traders I know does very well in the stock index markets by trying to figure out how the stock market can hurt the most traders. It seems to work for him.” ~ Bruce Kovner  In this week’s Dirty Dozen [CHART PACK], we go through my base case for…

*** The following is an excerpt from a recent Market Note sent out to members of our Collective. To find out more about the Collective, click here*** I was chatting with a good friend and mentor the other day. We were catching up as we hadn’t spoken in a few weeks. He’s worked with a…

“You are—face it—a bunch of emotions, prejudices, and twitches, and this is all very well as long as you know it. Successful speculators do not necessarily have a complete portrait of themselves, warts and all, in their own minds, but they do have the ability to stop abruptly when their own intuition and what is…

“Where you want to be is always in control, never wishing, always trading…” ~ Paul Tudor Jones (h/t @AndreA) In this week’s Dirty Dozen [CHART PACK]  we look at consensus SPX end of year forecasts, broad market positioning at their lows. An ISM maybe predicting further downside for the S&P? We then cover big flows…