Category: Research – Alex

“I discovered that the British stock market bottomed for all time in the summer of 1940 just before the Battle of Britain; that the U.S. market turned forever in late May 1942 around the epic Battle of Midway; and that the German market peaked at the high-water mark of the German attack on Russia just…

***The Following is an excerpt from a Market Note recently sent to Collective members. Click here to learn more***Consider this a PSA…The Russia/Ukraine hot takes I’m seeing getting bandied about on Fintwit by half-brained Putin lickspittled nitwits are so awful that I feel compelled to say something. First, a quick note about my background so you…

“Expansions don’t die of old age; they are murdered by the Federal Reserve”~ Rudi Dornbusch ***Housekeeping note: We’re opening enrollment to our Collective this week. If you’d like to join our band of ruthless profiteers then click the link below and sign up. Don’t hesitate to email me any questions you have. Looking forward to…

Y’all do know that $50-500B market cap companies moving 40-60% on earnings, and 10-20% just because, is not normal, right? ~ Jim ChanosGood morning!  In this week’s Dirty Dozen [CHART PACK] we look at DM yields, draining liquidity, the credit cycle, embedded expectations, oil going to $500bbl, and semi inventories, plus more…  DM yields are on…

Whatever one’s thesis about the inevitability of the Black Death, it cannot be denied that it found awaiting it in Europe a population singularly ill-equipped to resist. Distracted by wars, weakened by malnutrition, exhausted by his struggle to win a living from his inadequate portion of ever less fertile land, the medieval peasantry was ready…

When the time comes to buy, you wont want to… ~ Walter Deemer Good morning!In this week’s Dirty Dozen [CHART PACK] we look at yields and equity returns, go through the big 3 (sentiment, positioning, technicals), check out the latest BofA FMS findings, and more… All else equal, rising yields are a headwind for stocks.…

What winning traders share, however, is that they all understand that losing is part of the game, and they all have learned how to lose. ~ Jim Paul Good morning!  In this week’s Dirty Dozen [CHART PACK] we comment on ridiculous implied expectations, the increasing correlation between Nasdaq Composite returns and retail sales, and the market’s…

Most people believe high turnover is risky, but I think just the opposite. High turnover reduces risk when it’s the result of taking a series of small losses in order to avoid larger losses. I don’t hold on to stocks with deteriorating fundamentals or price patterns. For me, this kind of turnover makes sense. It…

Love this Bacon quote 👆Good morning!  In this week’s Dirty Dozen [CHART PACK] we again lay out the bull case for risk assets over the near term. We look at positive breadth thrusts, a GIANT wall of inflows, fund managers raising cash, calendar effects, a bearish setup in a popular growth stock, silver at support, and…

“People do not get what they want or what they expect from markets, they get what they deserve.” ~ Bill Bonner (h/t Morgan Housel) Good morning!  In this week’s Dirty Dozen [CHART PACK] we again lay out the bull case for risk assets over the near-term. We look at stealth bear markets, oversold breadth relative to…