Category: Research – Alex

“There is a very important difference between being a theoretical contrarian and dealing with it in practical terms. In order to win as a contrarian, you need the right timing and you have to put on a position in the appropriate size. If you do it too small, it’s not meaningful; if you do it…

“That’s a raisin at the end of a hotdog…” ~ Icelandic saying denoting surprise In this week’s Dirty Dozen [CHART PACK] we talk market returns following first rate cuts, negative fiscal impulse, bad market internals mixed with high sentiment/positioning, some interesting VIX stats, and more… 1. Last week’s highlights from BofA’s Flow Show report. View…

“In the final analysis, you need to have the courage to hold the position and take the risk. You need to be aware that the world is very sophisticated and always ask yourself: ‘How many people are left to act on this particular idea?’ You have to consider whether the market has already discounted your…

Alright, it’s that time of year where we review our winners, losers, mistakes, and misses. Regular reviews of performance are a trader’s shita-kitae. Just as a master swordmaker continually pounds, folds, and heats a block of steel in his efforts to forge the perfect blade. We traders and investors, need to routinely pore over our…

“You become a big winner when you lose,” Dan says. “Everyone plays well when they’re winning. But can you control yourself and play well when you’re losing? And not by being too conservative, but trying to still be objective as to what your chances are in the hand. If you can do that, then you’ve…

Back in March following several hotter-than-expected inflation prints, it became quite popular amongst the pundit class to spread alarm over a reacceleration in inflation. We at MO took the other side of that trade and argued for a continued trend down below 3%.  I’ll share what I wrote in our Collective Slack group at the…

View fullsize “I am very open-minded. I am willing to take in information that is difficult to accept emotionally, but which I still recognize to be true.”~ Michael Marcus In this week’s Dirty Dozen [CHART PACK] we discuss high-trend fragility mixed with supportive LT positioning. Walk through potential dangers lurking in record-low correlations, a bullish…

View fullsize “Understanding gambling games like blackjack and some of the others is one of the best possible training grounds for getting into the investment world. You learn how to manage money, you learn how to compute odds, and you learn how to reason what to do when you have an advantage. Gambling is investing…

View fullsize “It is essential “to seek facts diligently, advice never… Money managers have to account for their actions to their shareholders, which means they have an undue fear of underperformance. We invest only our own money. Our investment decisions are driven by optimism, not fear” ~ The Chandler Brothers In this week’s Dirty Dozen…

View fullsize “At any moment of time there are myriads of feedback loops at work, some of which are positive, others negative. They interact with each other, producing the irregular price patterns that prevail most of the time; but on the rare occasions that bubbles develop to their full potential, they tend to overshadow all…