Category: Research – Alex

View fullsize “The oil market is the world’s biggest gambling hall.” ~ T. Boone Pickens In this week’s Dirty Dozen [CHART PACK] we discuss issues with the payroll data and why it’s grossly overstating job growth. We then walk through bonds, CPI leads, and secular thematic rotations, before ending with a look at major compression…

“Bullishness is born as hope in the midst of despair. Hope swells to confidence and confidence swells to euphoria, and the process contains the seed of its own destruction and the birth of its opposite, fear. Fear is nurtured by falling prices and the two feed on themselves until they swell to despair. And so…

“When a trader starts to feel really smart, he/she is headed for a huge drawdown.” ~ Peter Brandt (h/t Walter Deemer)  In this week’s Dirty Dozen [CHART PACK] we cover crashing fund flows, an aging Risk Cycle, mild intermediate sentiment, stretched gold, a confirmed breakout in a potash producer, and a major squeeze in currencies,…

“The best trades are the ones in which you have all three things going for you: fundamentals, technicals, and market tone. First, the fundamentals should suggest that there is an imbalance of supply and demand, which could result in a major move. Second, the chart must show that the market is moving in the direction…

“You have to minimize your losses and try to preserve capital for those very few instances where you can make a lot in a very short period of time. What you can’t afford to do is throw away your capital on suboptimal trades. ” ~ Richard Dennis In this week’s Dirty Dozen [CHART PACK] we…

“All of us began as research people. And we have a saying, the micro drives the macro. And we never thought we were better at constructing what our nonfarm payrolls is going to be, is core PCE going to round up, or round down… We spoke to a lot of companies in the real economy,…

“Grave dancing is an art that has many potential benefits. But one must be careful while prancing around not to fall into the open pit and join the cadaver. There is often a thin line between the dancer and the danced upon.” ~ Sam Zell In this week’s Dirty Dozen [CHART PACK] we walk through…

“When traders think about money management, they think about stops and trade management. But a big part of the equation is knowing when to go all in, increase the leverage and press your trading to the hilt. Load the boat. These opportunities have an increase in volume and volatility. There is no point in actively…

“There are very few people who can develop the skills to get the edge, and far fewer still who can withstand the losses emotionally and still stick with the system. Probably only one in five hundred people has the necessary discipline to be successful.” ~ Blair Hull In this week’s Dirty Dozen [CHART PACK] we…

“Often as the end of a Squeeze nears, price will stage a short fake-out move, and then abruptly turn and surge in the direction of the emerging trend.” ~ John Bollinger via “Bollinger on Bollinger Bands In this week’s Dirty Dozen [CHART PACK] we look at the short-term buy setup in Qs but caveat that…