Category: Research – Alex

When the California residential home market collapsed, the market thought the company might go broke, but it survived the test and we made a fortune. That is when I made the rule that one should own stocks when they have successfully passed a difficult test, but one should avoid them during the test — something…

The stock market is never obvious. It is designed to fool most of the people, most of the time. ~ Jesse Livermore In this week’s Dirty Dozen [CHART PACK] we look at multiple breadth thrust signals, historically bullish technical developments, negative sentiment, make the bull case for Japan, and end with a look at crypto. …

What matters, as I say, is the background, not the foreground because the foreground is where everyone is looking. What matters in financial markets -and in life? -is not what you see straight ahead but what you glimpse out of the corner of your eye. ~ John Percival “The Way of the Dollar” In this…

Don’t have an opinion. We used to have a saying in Hong Kong, “Should’ve been up, but it’s down, so short it; should’ve been down, but it’s up, so long it.” That trading philosophy became the basis of what I wanted to do: When the tape is telling you something, don’t fight it; go with…

But barbarians at the gate are not the real cause of imperial collapse. They are a consequence of the failure to sustain social cooperation. As the British historian Arnold Toynbee said, great civilizations are not murdered—they die by suicide. ~ Peter Turchin “Ultrasociety” In this week’s Dirty Dozen [CHART PACK] we cover the new record by…

For eighteen years I followed the sea, took what it offered. It has brought me shipwreck and success, sorrow, danger, and unutterable happiness.~ Henry de Monfreid In this week’s Dirty Dozen [CHART PACK] we look at a combination of multiple buy signals in stocks in conjunction with both bonds and USD bumping up against critical…

In chess we have the obligation to move; there is no option to skip a turn if you can’t identify a direction that suits you. One of the great challenges of the game is how to make progress when there are no obvious moves, when action is required, not reaction. The great Polish chess master…

There are no limits. There are plateaus, but you must not stay there, you must go beyond them. If it kills you, it kills you. A man must constantly exceed his level. ~ Bruce Lee In this week’s Dirty Dozen [CHART PACK] we answer the question (probabilistically) of whether this is the start of a…

The investment process is only half the battle. The other weighty component is struggling with yourself, and immunizing yourself from the psychological effects of the swings of markets, career risk, the pressure of benchmarks, competition, and the loneliness of the long-distance runner. ~ Barton Biggs In this week’s Dirty Dozen [CHART PACK] we discuss the…

You can’t build in a feedback or reactive model, because you don’t know what to model. And if you do know — by the time you know — the odds are the market has changed. That is the whole point of what makes a trader successful — he can see things in ways most others…