Category: Research – Alex

“Modern man is conditioned to expect instant gratification but any success or triumph realized quickly, with only marginal effort, is necessarily shallow. Meaningful achievement takes time, hard work, persistence, patience, proper intent, and constant self-awareness. The path to such success is punctuated by failure, consolidation, and renewed effort. It is wet with the tears of…

“This company looks cheap, that company looks cheap, but the overall economy could completely screw it up. The key is to wait. Sometimes the hardest thing to do is to do nothing.” ~ David Tepper In this week’s Dirty Dozen [CHART PACK], we look at disappointing cyclical breadth, deteriorating SPX and sector margins, bearish positioning…

“Those whom the gods would destroy they first make proud.” ~ Sophocles In this week’s Dirty Dozen [CHART PACK], we look at what fund managers are doing, go over the extremes in bearish sentiment and positioning, run through the multiple signals of an inbound bullish run over the short-term. We then look at housing, labor…

You tend to think past financial crises resemble earthquakes. They are not one-shot events. They are like bad relationships: drama, gloom, resolution, bounce back, optimism, it’s all going to be fine, then another drama, another gloom, a huge bounce back, then…~ Nassim Taleb In this week’s Dirty Dozen [CHART PACK], we look at tightening lending…

Opinion is like a pendulum and obeys the same laws ~ Arthur Schopenhauer In this week’s Dirty Dozen [CHART PACK], we look at the structural changes to inflation drivers, discuss why market leads should give pause to the bears, look at poor earnings quality, recession risk in Europe, and a short setup in Ags, plus…

I don’t think you can consistently be a winning trader if you’re banking on being right more than 50 percent of the time. You have to figure out how to make money being right only 20 to 30 percent of the time.~  Bill Lipschutz via The New Market Wizards by Schwager In this week’s Dirty…

It takes a huge investment in introspection to learn that the thirty or more hours spent “studying” the news last month neither had any predictive ability during your activities of that month nor did it impact your current knowledge of the world. ~  Nassim Taleb, “Fooled By Randomness” In this week’s Dirty Dozen [CHART PACK],…

Remember this: When you are doing nothing, those speculators who feel they must trade day in and day out, are laying the foundation for your next venture. You will reap benefits from their mistakes. Speculation is far too exciting. Most people who speculate hound the brokerage offices or receive frequent telephone calls, and after the…

Time is the dominant factor in gambling. Risk and time are opposite sides of the same coin, for if there were no tomorrow there would be no risk. Time transforms risk, and the nature of risk is shaped by the time horizon: the future is the playing field. ~  Peter Bernstein, “Against The Gods” –In…

The Extended Disorder Family (or Cluster): (i) uncertainty, (ii) variability, (iii) imperfect, incomplete knowledge, (iv) chance, (v) chaos, (vi) volatility, (vii) disorder, (viii) entropy, (ix) time, (x) the unknown, (xi) randomness, (xii) turmoil, (xiii) stressor, (xiv) error, (xv) dispersion of outcomes, (xvi) unknowledge. ~  Nassim Taleb, “Anti-Fragile” In this week’s Dirty Dozen [CHART PACK], we…