Category: Research

Good trading is a peculiar balance between the conviction to follow your ideas and the flexibility to recognize when you have made a mistake. You need to believe in something, but at the same time, you are going to be wrong a considerable number of times. The balance between confidence and humility is best learned…

In times of change, learners inherit the earth; while the learned find themselves beautifully equipped to deal with a world that no longer exists. ~ Eric Hoffer In this week’s Dirty Dozen [CHART PACK], we again make the case to not fight the upside trend in equity markets, we then talk bearish CoT positioning in…

What an adaptive worldview means is that whenever you learn a new concept in an ill-structured domain, you know not to oversimplify — that is, to represent it as a single principle or concept. You do not try to reduce. You instead know to search for new, different cases in order to collect a cluster…

My fear of the markets has forced me to hone my timing with great precision. When I am trading properly, it is like a pool player running racks. If my gut feel of market conditions is not right, I don’t trade. ~ Mark WeinsteinIn this week’s Dirty Dozen [CHART PACK], we talk fund manager sentiment,…

“Modern man is conditioned to expect instant gratification but any success or triumph realized quickly, with only marginal effort, is necessarily shallow. Meaningful achievement takes time, hard work, persistence, patience, proper intent, and constant self-awareness. The path to such success is punctuated by failure, consolidation, and renewed effort. It is wet with the tears of…

“This company looks cheap, that company looks cheap, but the overall economy could completely screw it up. The key is to wait. Sometimes the hardest thing to do is to do nothing.” ~ David Tepper In this week’s Dirty Dozen [CHART PACK], we look at disappointing cyclical breadth, deteriorating SPX and sector margins, bearish positioning…

“Those whom the gods would destroy they first make proud.” ~ Sophocles In this week’s Dirty Dozen [CHART PACK], we look at what fund managers are doing, go over the extremes in bearish sentiment and positioning, run through the multiple signals of an inbound bullish run over the short-term. We then look at housing, labor…

You tend to think past financial crises resemble earthquakes. They are not one-shot events. They are like bad relationships: drama, gloom, resolution, bounce back, optimism, it’s all going to be fine, then another drama, another gloom, a huge bounce back, then…~ Nassim Taleb In this week’s Dirty Dozen [CHART PACK], we look at tightening lending…

Opinion is like a pendulum and obeys the same laws ~ Arthur Schopenhauer In this week’s Dirty Dozen [CHART PACK], we look at the structural changes to inflation drivers, discuss why market leads should give pause to the bears, look at poor earnings quality, recession risk in Europe, and a short setup in Ags, plus…