Category: Research
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What Smart Investors Do In Bear Markets
Bear markets can be stressful for investors, especially if you’re unprepared for an extended downturn. A bear market is a period of declining stock prices, typically defined as a 20% or more drop from recent highs. Bear markets can last for months or even years. They can be caused by factors such as a recession,…
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A Dwindling Cash Buffer… [Dirty Dozen]
I don’t think you can consistently be a winning trader if you’re banking on being right more than 50 percent of the time. You have to figure out how to make money being right only 20 to 30 percent of the time.~ Bill Lipschutz via The New Market Wizards by Schwager In this week’s Dirty…
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The Market’s Muddy Waters… [Dirty Dozen]
It takes a huge investment in introspection to learn that the thirty or more hours spent “studying” the news last month neither had any predictive ability during your activities of that month nor did it impact your current knowledge of the world. ~ Nassim Taleb, “Fooled By Randomness” In this week’s Dirty Dozen [CHART PACK],…
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No Landing Now = Hard Landing Later… [Dirty Dozen]
Remember this: When you are doing nothing, those speculators who feel they must trade day in and day out, are laying the foundation for your next venture. You will reap benefits from their mistakes. Speculation is far too exciting. Most people who speculate hound the brokerage offices or receive frequent telephone calls, and after the…
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The #1 Source For Global Macro Trading Research
If you’re reading this, you’re probably an investor or trader that wants to learn more about Global Macro Trading Research. Maybe you’ve spent the past year getting burned by unprofitable tech companies. Only to see “Energy Bros” on Twitter victory lap like a pack of killer whales surrounding a baby seal. You thought you had…
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Don’t Forget, This Is A Bear Market Rally… [Dirty Dozen]
Time is the dominant factor in gambling. Risk and time are opposite sides of the same coin, for if there were no tomorrow there would be no risk. Time transforms risk, and the nature of risk is shaped by the time horizon: the future is the playing field. ~ Peter Bernstein, “Against The Gods” –In…
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Don’t Worry, The President Is Buying… [Dirty Dozen]
The Extended Disorder Family (or Cluster): (i) uncertainty, (ii) variability, (iii) imperfect, incomplete knowledge, (iv) chance, (v) chaos, (vi) volatility, (vii) disorder, (viii) entropy, (ix) time, (x) the unknown, (xi) randomness, (xii) turmoil, (xiii) stressor, (xiv) error, (xv) dispersion of outcomes, (xvi) unknowledge. ~ Nassim Taleb, “Anti-Fragile” In this week’s Dirty Dozen [CHART PACK], we…
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Rory Johnston: Oil & Gas Industry Crash Course (Transcript)
If you’re like me and prefer hard copy transcripts, check out the PDF version here. TranscriptThis editable transcript was computer generated and might contain errors. People can also change the text after it was created.Brandon Beylo: All right, Rory, we’re obviously bringing you on the podcast today because oil is the new oil. At least that’s…
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If You’re Not A Little Long, You’re Wrong… [Dirty Dozen]
I think the dominant note of our time is unreality. The thin air of the music we all heard has died away. It lasted a long time, certainly several decades, but the best rule is: When the music stops, forget the old music…In good times it’s not hard to make money, but in times of…
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Value Investing Q4 Letter Recaps: MWA, DVA, PRM
Our Value Investing Letter Recaps keep things simple. Each email focuses on three value investing hedge fund letters, three ideas, all digestible in roughly three minutes. Within each idea we answer four main questions: What does the business do? Why is it a good bet? Why does the opportunity exist? What is the prize if you’re right?…