Category: Research

***Note: As a thank you for following along with us this year, we’re releasing three premium reports that were previously only available to our Collective members. The following is report number two.This research is part of the work our team is doing to prepare for the 2023 Macro Regime Shift. If you want to protect…

I’m leaning short on the equity markets. I think the upside/downside [risk here] just doesn’t make sense to me when I have so many central banks telling me what they are going to do, This is a tough level [for the S&P 500] to talk about robust returns. [Central banks] are going to keep rates…

 What are the factors that gave rise to investors’ success over the last 40 years? We saw major contributions from (a) the economic growth and preeminence of the U.S.; (b) the incredible performance of our greatest companies; (c) gains in technology, productivity and management techniques; and (d) the benefits of globalization. However, I’d be surprised…

The securities we typically analyze are those that reflect the behavioral anomalies arising from largely emotional reactions to events. In the broadest sense, those securities reflect low expectations of future value creation, usually arising from either macroeconomic or microeconomic events or fears. Our research efforts are oriented toward determining whether a large gap exists between…

Reflexive processes tend to follow a certain pattern. In the early stages, the trend has to be self-reinforcing, otherwise, the process aborts. As the trend extends, it becomes increasingly vulnerable because the fundamentals such as trade and interest payments move against the trend, in accordance with the precepts of classical analysis, and the trend becomes…