Category: Research
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Bad Things Tend To Bunch… [Dirty Dozen]
“There is a very important difference between being a theoretical contrarian and dealing with it in practical terms. In order to win as a contrarian, you need the right timing and you have to put on a position in the appropriate size. If you do it too small, it’s not meaningful; if you do it…
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Raisins in Hotdogs… [Dirty Dozen]
“That’s a raisin at the end of a hotdog…” ~ Icelandic saying denoting surprise In this week’s Dirty Dozen [CHART PACK] we talk market returns following first rate cuts, negative fiscal impulse, bad market internals mixed with high sentiment/positioning, some interesting VIX stats, and more… 1. Last week’s highlights from BofA’s Flow Show report. View…
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The Lowdown On Labor… [Dirty Dozen]
“In the final analysis, you need to have the courage to hold the position and take the risk. You need to be aware that the world is very sophisticated and always ask yourself: ‘How many people are left to act on this particular idea?’ You have to consider whether the market has already discounted your…
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YTD Macro Portfolio Review: +32%
Alright, it’s that time of year where we review our winners, losers, mistakes, and misses. Regular reviews of performance are a trader’s shita-kitae. Just as a master swordmaker continually pounds, folds, and heats a block of steel in his efforts to forge the perfect blade. We traders and investors, need to routinely pore over our…
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Mineros S.A. (MSA.V): Capital Returns in Mining Done Right
Last week, we introduced our mini-series on junior mining stocks … and how we’ve picked massive winners that have outperformed their benchmarks and underlying commodity prices. As I mentioned, nobody cared about these ideas when I shared them … nobody outside our Macro Ops Collective community. No matter who I pitched them to, the ideas…
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Notes From Call with FEX Chairman John Welborn
On Wednesday night, I had a call with John Welborn, Chairman of Fenix Resources (FEX). FEX is our iron ore producer, expanding production from 1.3Mt/year to 4Mt/year+. It also boasts a growing logistics business and port infrastructure assets worth more than the current market cap (excluding its net cash position). You can read our deep…
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Time To Lighten The Book… [Dirty Dozen]
“You become a big winner when you lose,” Dan says. “Everyone plays well when they’re winning. But can you control yourself and play well when you’re losing? And not by being too conservative, but trying to still be objective as to what your chances are in the hand. If you can do that, then you’ve…
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Things Aren’t Quite As They Seem…
Back in March following several hotter-than-expected inflation prints, it became quite popular amongst the pundit class to spread alarm over a reacceleration in inflation. We at MO took the other side of that trade and argued for a continued trend down below 3%. I’ll share what I wrote in our Collective Slack group at the…
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Andean Precious Metals (APM.V): Hunting For Value in Bolivia
Junior mining stocks are starting to break out. It’s about time for silver and gold prices to hit new relative and all-time highs, respectively. Soon, you’ll hear mining stocks pitched on CNCB. Of course, that’s when the trade will have run its course, the easy money already made, and the “smart” investors out with their…
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No Shorts Left…[Dirty Dozen]
View fullsize “I am very open-minded. I am willing to take in information that is difficult to accept emotionally, but which I still recognize to be true.”~ Michael Marcus In this week’s Dirty Dozen [CHART PACK] we discuss high-trend fragility mixed with supportive LT positioning. Walk through potential dangers lurking in record-low correlations, a bullish…