Category: Research
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Sell Semis and Buy The Internet!
Whatever one’s thesis about the inevitability of the Black Death, it cannot be denied that it found awaiting it in Europe a population singularly ill-equipped to resist. Distracted by wars, weakened by malnutrition, exhausted by his struggle to win a living from his inadequate portion of ever less fertile land, the medieval peasantry was ready…
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Preconditions For A Bottom…
When the time comes to buy, you wont want to… ~ Walter Deemer Good morning!In this week’s Dirty Dozen [CHART PACK] we look at yields and equity returns, go through the big 3 (sentiment, positioning, technicals), check out the latest BofA FMS findings, and more… All else equal, rising yields are a headwind for stocks.…
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The 2021 Classical Charting Performance Review
Most of you reading this know I love finding great businesses trading at great prices. You know, the “classic” fundamental investor type stuff. However, another passion of mine is trading classical chart patterns. And I know, charts and fundamentals are like angry uncles that won’t pay up for an old gambling debt against one another. They…
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Secular Semiconductor Bull…
What winning traders share, however, is that they all understand that losing is part of the game, and they all have learned how to lose. ~ Jim Paul Good morning! In this week’s Dirty Dozen [CHART PACK] we comment on ridiculous implied expectations, the increasing correlation between Nasdaq Composite returns and retail sales, and the market’s…
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Becoming Trader Joe: A Book Review
The more I study investing, the less I reach for investing-specific books to read. Of course, you should read “The Classics” of Buffett, Graham, and Greenwald. But there comes the point when the 19th reading of Nick Sleep’s letters adds zero value to your investing capabilities. Let’s return to the basics for a second. Shares of…
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The Energy in Energy…
Most people believe high turnover is risky, but I think just the opposite. High turnover reduces risk when it’s the result of taking a series of small losses in order to avoid larger losses. I don’t hold on to stocks with deteriorating fundamentals or price patterns. For me, this kind of turnover makes sense. It…
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A Giant Wall of Money
Love this Bacon quote 👆Good morning! In this week’s Dirty Dozen [CHART PACK] we again lay out the bull case for risk assets over the near term. We look at positive breadth thrusts, a GIANT wall of inflows, fund managers raising cash, calendar effects, a bearish setup in a popular growth stock, silver at support, and…
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A Stealth Bear is Bull
“People do not get what they want or what they expect from markets, they get what they deserve.” ~ Bill Bonner (h/t Morgan Housel) Good morning! In this week’s Dirty Dozen [CHART PACK] we again lay out the bull case for risk assets over the near-term. We look at stealth bear markets, oversold breadth relative to…
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Budding COVID Concerns…
It goes to show that when you are confused it is best to do nothing. You are just going for a random walk and that is when you are liable to get mugged because you don’t have staying power. You are likely to be faked out by some stray fluctuation because you lack the courage…
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CD Projekt (CDR): Lost Cause? Or The Metaverse For Adults?
CD Projekt (“CDPR” for short) is Poland’s leading video game developer that created the Witcher Series and Cyberpunk 2077, among other games.What’s the opportunity: The bear argument is straightforward. Bears believe that the Cyberpunk fumble permanently damaged CDPR’s reputation with old/new gamers. This dwindling reputation will lead to fewer sales over time, less popular titles, and a substantially reduced IP value.With…