Category: Research

View fullsize “Understanding gambling games like blackjack and some of the others is one of the best possible training grounds for getting into the investment world. You learn how to manage money, you learn how to compute odds, and you learn how to reason what to do when you have an advantage. Gambling is investing…

View fullsize “It is essential “to seek facts diligently, advice never… Money managers have to account for their actions to their shareholders, which means they have an undue fear of underperformance. We invest only our own money. Our investment decisions are driven by optimism, not fear” ~ The Chandler Brothers In this week’s Dirty Dozen…

View fullsize “At any moment of time there are myriads of feedback loops at work, some of which are positive, others negative. They interact with each other, producing the irregular price patterns that prevail most of the time; but on the rare occasions that bubbles develop to their full potential, they tend to overshadow all…

View fullsize “The oil market is the world’s biggest gambling hall.” ~ T. Boone Pickens In this week’s Dirty Dozen [CHART PACK] we discuss issues with the payroll data and why it’s grossly overstating job growth. We then walk through bonds, CPI leads, and secular thematic rotations, before ending with a look at major compression…

“Bullishness is born as hope in the midst of despair. Hope swells to confidence and confidence swells to euphoria, and the process contains the seed of its own destruction and the birth of its opposite, fear. Fear is nurtured by falling prices and the two feed on themselves until they swell to despair. And so…

“When a trader starts to feel really smart, he/she is headed for a huge drawdown.” ~ Peter Brandt (h/t Walter Deemer)  In this week’s Dirty Dozen [CHART PACK] we cover crashing fund flows, an aging Risk Cycle, mild intermediate sentiment, stretched gold, a confirmed breakout in a potash producer, and a major squeeze in currencies,…

“The best trades are the ones in which you have all three things going for you: fundamentals, technicals, and market tone. First, the fundamentals should suggest that there is an imbalance of supply and demand, which could result in a major move. Second, the chart must show that the market is moving in the direction…

“You have to minimize your losses and try to preserve capital for those very few instances where you can make a lot in a very short period of time. What you can’t afford to do is throw away your capital on suboptimal trades. ” ~ Richard Dennis In this week’s Dirty Dozen [CHART PACK] we…

“All of us began as research people. And we have a saying, the micro drives the macro. And we never thought we were better at constructing what our nonfarm payrolls is going to be, is core PCE going to round up, or round down… We spoke to a lot of companies in the real economy,…

“Grave dancing is an art that has many potential benefits. But one must be careful while prancing around not to fall into the open pit and join the cadaver. There is often a thin line between the dancer and the danced upon.” ~ Sam Zell In this week’s Dirty Dozen [CHART PACK] we walk through…