Category: Research
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Yearly Charts Point To A New Bull In REAL Assets [DIRTY DOZEN]
“Incorporating percentages or ranges of alternatives into the expression of our beliefs means that our personal narrative no longer hinges on whether we were wrong or right but on how well we incorporate new information to adjust the estimate of how accurate our beliefs are.” ~ Annie Duke, “Thinking in Bets ***Note: Just a heads…
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How To Spot Increasing Returns Businesses
“My plan is to start from a completely blank state, taking nothing about technology for granted. I will build the argument piece by piece from three fundamental principles. The first will be the one I have been talking about: that technologies, all technologies, are combinations. This simply means that individual technologies are constructed or put…
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Stocks Are Setting Up For A January Selloff [DIRTY DOZEN]
“Soros saw no point in knowing everything about a few stocks in the hope of anticipating small moves; the game was to know a little about a lot of things, so that you could spot the places where the big wave might be coming.” ~ Sebastian Mallaby, “More Money Than God” Good morning!In this week’s…
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It’s Markov All The Way Down (A Mental Model For Investing & Everything Else)
Fighter pilots have to worry about a lot in the sky. Not only must they locate, fire and destroy the enemy. They have to do all that without crashing into their own men!Here’s the crazy part. The strategies fighter pilots use in combat apply to investing, business and life!Yet as important as learning how to fight, fighter…
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Global Energy CAPEX at RECORD Lows [DIRTY DOZEN]
“Around here there are three kinds of investors. Growthies, guys who love growth stocks, don’t care about valuations, and only buy stocks with strong price momentum; geeks, who are quants and invest off computer models; and shitheads, who are value investors. In other words, they buy the stocks of dirty, shitty companies because they are…
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Snapchat: A New Way To View The Bull Thesis
Snapchat (SNAP) is on fire. The stock’s up 194% YTD with no signs of stopping. The SNAP bull thesis usually hinges on its user and revenue growth. Bulls are quick to note the company isn’t a “social media” company as much as it’s a “camera operating system”.The largest hang-up for SNAP bears lies in the…
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The Start of a New Commodity Super Cycle [DIRTY DOZEN]
Some narratives are contagious because they seem to offer a confirming fact. We can say with some accuracy that most people put on a show of their own knowledgeability and try to conceal their ignorance of millions of facts. Hence narratives that seem contrary to prevailing thought may have lower contagion rates that do not…
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C3.ai: Mr. Market’s Latest Enterprise Software AI IPO
“And it is why digital transformation can be so frightening: Companies must shift their focus from what they know works and invest instead in alternatives they view as risky and unproven. Many companies simply refuse to believe they are facing a life-or-death situation. This is Clayton Christensen’s aptly named “Innovator’s Dilemma”: Companies fail to innovate…
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The Correction in Gold is NOT Over [DIRTY DOZEN]
You are—face it—a bunch of emotions, prejudices, and twitches, and this is all very well as long as you know it. Successful speculators do not necessarily have a complete portrait of themselves, warts and all, in their own minds, but they do have the ability to stop abruptly when their own intuition and what is…
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AI in Finance: Revamping Competitive Advantages
“It is difficult to think of a major industry that AI will not transform. This includes healthcare, education, transportation, retail, communications, and agriculture. There are surprisingly clear paths for AI to make a big difference in all of these industries.” – Andrew Ng This month we’ve dissected Artificial Intelligence (AI) and its impact on three…