Category: Research
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Japan’s Mothers Index: An Under-fished Reservoir of Growth & Value
Our job as investors is simple. We fish where the fish are. More importantly, we want to fish where other fishermen aren’t casting their lines. What good is inefficiency if every investor finds the same result? What good is a fishing hole if every fisherman has their line in the water?Japan’s early tech / IPO…
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Bitcoin’s Share of Liquid Markets [DIRTY DOZEN]
The characteristic feature of the loser is to bemoan, in general terms, mankind’s flaws, biases, contradictions, and irrationality—without exploiting them for fun and profit. ~ Nassim Taleb, “The Bed of Procrustes” Good morning!In this week’s Dirty Dozen [CHART PACK] we look at bitcoin’s share of global liquid markets before diving into Q3 earnings season and…
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Murata Manufacturing (6981): The Best Way To Play MLCC Demand Surge
Murata is the world’s largest producer of multi-layer ceramic chips (MLCCs) with over 40% market share. The company cranks out over 150 billion MLCC pieces per-month. The next closest peer, Samsung Electric (SEMCO) produces 100B pieces per-month.Here’s why we’re interested in Murata now: The company’s main revenue source (MLCCs) will see a demand explosion from…
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A BIG Bullish Breakout in Bitcoin Beckons [DIRTY DOZEN]
Unfortunately, as we have seen, the playing of the Game is not entirely a rational affair. If it were, the most impeccable fact-finding would soon dominate the market, and many of the players would be bored to death and would invent some other Game. ~ Adam Smith, “The Money Game” Good morning!In this week’s Dirty…
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Underwriting the Future + MU Bull Case
I don’t believe in edge. I think it’s a fairy tale. The world is too competitive. Going back to AI, investing is where chess was in 1996, when there was an enormous race between human grandmasters and algorithms, and Deep Blue started to beat Garry Kasparov by using brute compute force. Welcome to the deep…
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DRAM & NAND: Betting On The Semiconductor Supercycle
“Digital technology, pervasively, is getting embedded in every place: every thing, every person, every walk of life is being fundamentally shaped by digital technology — it is happening in our homes, our work, our places of entertainment. It’s amazing to think of a world as a computer. I think that’s the right metaphor for us…
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A Silver Miner Breaking Out of a HUGE Base [DIRTY DOZEN]
It has taken me years to unlearn everything I was taught, and I probably haven’t succeeded yet. I cite this only because most of what has been written about the market tells you the way it ought to be, and the successful investors I know do not hold to the way it ought to be,…
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The Stock Market’s Sleight of Hand
The market is like a magician. It pulls your attention to one hand while stealing your watch with the other. The biggest trends kick-off when no one’s looking. The most contested areas of the market — the stocks everyone is talking about — do nothing.Markets are funny like that.Unlike a magician though, the market isn’t…
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AI & Semiconductors: Understanding The Next Super-Cycle
“Mechanisms of artificial intelligence provide real-time fast decision-making based on the analysis of huge amounts of information, which gives tremendous advantages in quality and effectiveness … If someone can provide a monopoly in the field of artificial intelligence, then the consequences are clear to all of us: he will rule the world.” – Vladimir Putin…
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The Bond VIX is at Record Lows! [DIRTY DOZEN]
A trick to get a sense of the overall level of bullishness is to ask who the burden of proof is on. If you pitch an idea, do other investors take your side immediately, or do they require evidence that your view is correct? If the answer is the latter, your idea is probably off-consensus.~…