Category: Research
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Monday Dirty Dozen [CHART PACK] #14
You cannot trade the market. Instead, you can only trade your beliefs about the market. However, you can only do that successfully if you understand the fundamental concepts behind low-risk ideas, expectancy, and position sizing. ~ Van Tharp In this week’s Dirty Dozen [CHART PACK] we look at a record high in the DIX index,…
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The Narrative Pendulum
via GIPHY Fractalized sine waves are encoded into the very fabric of our reality. Like the Golden Ratio and the second law of thermodynamics, they appear throughout the universe on nearly every level of scale and function. It’s no surprise then that they underlie the structure of our market. This makes intuitive sense because a…
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Investor Intelligence Bull/Bear Ratio: Mastering Technical Hierarchy
The hierarchy of market technicals looks something like this: Price: The tape is the first and final arbiter of truth Trend: Newton’s first law reigns. A trend in motion tends to stay in motion and a tape at rest, stays at rest Breadth: A measure of the strength and durability of the price and trend…
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Ackman’s SPAC, Intangible Assets, Insurance IPOs and Mauboussin’s Whitepaper
Hope you had a great weekend and a good start to your week. Isn’t it funny how a ~8% drop in the S&P feels like nothing after March? Just another day in the markets.There’s people saying we’re in a recession/depression. There’s people saying we’re in the early stages of a bull market. Whichever side you’re…
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Monday Dirty Dozen [CHART PACK] #13
History is hard to know, because of all the hired bullshit, but even without being sure of ‘history’ it seems entirely reasonable to think that every now and then the energy of a whole generation comes to a head in a long fine flash, for reasons that nobody really understands at the time—and which never…
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Emerging Markets, Stock Based Compensation & DIY S&P Valuation
Markets don’t make sense. The Druck is as confused as the rest of us. Nobody knows why companies with $0 in revenue trade at $20B valuations. And like that, the S&P is back to where it was before the COVID-19 sell-off.Just as everyone predicted. If there’s anything we know about markets it’s that we can’t…
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Cash Flow: It’s All That Matters
Warning, this piece gets into the weeds of financial accounting statements. We dive deep into the cash flow statement, why it matters, and equip you with the knowledge to dissect statements on your own.Before diving into the meat, one should understand why the cash flow statement is so important. There’s a few reasons: Cash tells…
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Monday Dirty Dozen [CHART PACK] #12
Being a great trader is a process. It’s a race with no finish line. The markets are not static. No single style or approach can provide superior results over long periods of time. To continue to outperform, the great traders continue to learn and adapt. ~ Jack Schwager In this week’s Dirty Dozen [CHART PACK]…
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New Ideas From Telecom, Healthcare and Salmon Farming
Seemed like May flew by (along with the rest of 2020!) didn’t it?The markets continue to confuse professional managers. Robinhood investors are minting money. Riots in the streets, S&P futures up pre-market. Nothing really makes sense.If there’s one shred of consistency in your life, it’s a fresh new copy of Value Hive in your inbox…
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Creative Thinking: An Investor’s Last Remaining Edge
Walt Disney epitomizes the ultimate Dreamer and Creator. From cartoons to movies to theme parks and more… His list of achievements is longer than Elon’s baby names.How can one man develop the capacity to turn his dreams into the reality that billions enjoy today?Superior models for operating mixed with a near-infinite supply of drive.The creator…