Category: Research

While amateurs go broke by taking large losses, professionals go broke by taking small profits. The problem, in a nutshell, is that human nature does not operate to maximize gain but rather to maximize the chance of a gain. ~ William Eckhardt In this week’s Dirty Dozen [CHART PACK] we look at BAD earnings revisions,…

Years of experience eventually teach you that your main battle, always, is with yourself — your propensity for errors, for rationalizing marginal hands into good hands, lack of concentration, misreading other players, emotional eruptions, impatience, and so on. Your opponents are merely dim outlines that come and go. Few of them ever reach the exalted …

You have to recognize that every “out-front” maneuver is going to be lonely. But if you feel entirely comfortable, then you’re not far enough ahead to do any good. That warm sense of everything going well is usually the body temperature at the center of the herd. Only if you’re far enough ahead to be…

The bear market bounce that I said was odds on two weeks ago in “Bulls Fighting to Save March” has happened. The SPX has jumped 25% off its 3/23 low.The question now is whether the bounce is: only getting started, midway, or run its course? Since we don’t yet have a crystal ball, we have…

Back in March 2019, I wrote a post titled “A Golden Macro Opportunity” discussing the extreme compression in volatility we were seeing throughout the precious metals complex and how this portended an equally extreme expansion in vol and a major move on the horizon.A little over a month later we saw gold break out giving…

You don’t really trade the market. You trade your beliefs about the market. ~ Van Tharp Click here to get the Dirty Dozen straight to your inbox every Monday morning Good morning!In this week’s Dirty Dozen [CHART PACK] we look at current estimates of the severity of the coming recession, look at how those compare…