Category: Research
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Musings: The Illusion of the Great Moderation and an Update on Shipping
Alex here with your latest Friday Macro Musings. As always, if you come across something cool during the week, shoot me an email at alex@macro-ops.com and I’ll share it with the group.Latest Articles — Your Monday Dirty Dozen [CHART PACK] — We look at the widening gap between the positive hard data and the horrendous…
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Investor Letters, Options Trader Wins Big and More!
This edition is LOADED with investor letters as we clear the deck for one of our favorites: Scott Miller. We’ll touch on some other things, such as a trader turning $700 into $100K+. Artko Capital continues to kill it. And Howard Marks discusses negative rates.But we’re saving room for what matters most, fresh ideas. Make…
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Your Monday Dirty Dozen [CHART PACK] #5
It may be readily conceived that if men passionately bent upon physical gratifications desire greatly, they are also easily discouraged; as their ultimate object is to enjoy, the means to reach that object must be prompt and easy or the trouble of acquiring the gratification would be greater than the gratification itself. Their prevailing frame…
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Musings: The Anniversary of Black Monday and the Infamous PTJ “Trader” Doc
Alex here with your latest Friday Macro Musings. As always, if you come across something cool during the week, shoot me an email at alex@macro-ops.com and I’ll share it with the group. Latest Articles — Your Monday Dirty Dozen [CHART PACK] — We look at more charts showing the pervasive bearishness amongst investors; from sentiment near multi-decade lows…
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Shipping Stocks, Water Assets and Jeff Bezos Interviews
October’s well underway, but yesterday marked my official first day of Fall. My girlfriend convinced me to visit a pumpkin patch. We took “artsy” photos with pumpkins and tractors.Safe to say I’m buying puts on her IG page if she posts those.Here’s what we got in store for you this week. PG&E hides under the…
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Your Monday Dirty Dozen [CHART PACK] #4
The point of forecasting is not to attempt illusory certainty, but to identify the full range of possible outcomes. ~ Paul Saffo Good morning!In this week’s Dirty Dozen [CHART PACK] we look at more charts showing the pervasive bearishness amongst investors; from sentiment near multi-decade lows to persistent outflows in EM stocks. We also check…
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Musings: The Market, To Be Commanded, Must Be Obeyed
Alex here with your latest Friday Macro Musings. Latest Articles — Your Monday Dirty Dozen [CHART PACK] — We look at the trend in global PMIs and what that’s meant for sector returns going forward, plus we look at falling oil demand and dropping rig counts, and end with a look at some lending data…
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Part 2: #Recession2020, Really? A Review of the Data
I’ve got some bad news…According to this guy, there’s at least a 70% chance we enter a recession next year, maybe sooner.It’s not just James of “Financial Education”. It’s literally every popular social media influencer on youtube predicting a major slowdown in the economy over the next 12-months.I guess it’s time to sell our longs…
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Part 1: The Tape Tells All
We kick off our series of imagining alternate scenarios and evaluating the weight of the evidence by starting with the most important thing, the tape.I’m going to walk you through my process for looking under the hood at the broader supply and demand forces driving underlying price-action in the averages and what the technicals are…
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Q3 Letters, Russian Stocks and P/E Misconceptions
There’s four major holidays we like to celebrate at Value Hive. Q1, Q2, Q3 and Q4 Investor Letters. This month we get our Q3 batch of letters. The next three Value Hive editions will be chock full of these letters. We’ll cover new positions, recently exited positions and market outlooks from our favorite value managers. Here’s…