Category: Research

Economic history is a never-ending series of episodes based on falsehoods and lies, not truths. It represents the path to big money. The object is to recognize the trend whose premise is false, ride that trend, and step off before it is discredited. ~ George Soros Good morning!In this week’s Monday Dozen we ask the…

***(The following is an excerpt from a recent note sent to MO Collective Members)***Markets are about to hit some rough seas in the month(s) ahead. I’m not calling for a bear market or major crash but more expecting some choppy sideways/slightly lower action. We’re going to button down the hatches a bit (ie, reduce equity…

Be a disciplined rational investor. Follow logic and analysis rather than sales pitches, whims, or emotion. Assume you may have an edge only when you can make a rational affirmative case that withstands your attempts to tear it down. Don’t gamble unless you are highly confident you have the edge. As Buffett says, “Only swing…

Global macro is the willingness to opportunistically look at every idea that comes along, from micro situations to country-specific situations, across every asset category and every country in the world. It’s the combination of a broad top-down country analysis with a bottom-up microanalysis of companies. In many cases, after we make our country decisions, we…

Well, I was worth over one million after the close of business that day. But my biggest winnings were not in dollars but in the intangibles: I had been right, I had looked ahead and followed a clear-cut plan. I had learned what a man must do in order to make big money; I was…

When traders think about money management, they think about stops and trade management. But a big part of the equation is knowing when to go all in, increase the leverage and press your trading to the hilt. Load the boat. These opportunities have an increase in volume and volatility. There is no point in actively…

In the final analysis, you need to have the courage to hold the position and take the risk. You need to be aware that the world is very sophisticated and always ask yourself: ‘How many people are left to act on this particular idea?’ You have to consider whether the market has already discounted your…

The thing to do is watch the market, read the tape to determine the limits of the get- nowhere prices, and make up your mind that you will not take an interest until the price breaks through the limit in either direction. ~ Jesse Livermore Every weekend I scroll through probably a 100+ charts. I…

To others, being wrong is a source of shame; to me, recognizing my mistakes is a source of pride. Once we realize that imperfect understanding is the human condition, there is no shame in being wrong, only in failing to correct our mistakes. ~ George Soros I learned that everyone makes mistakes and has weaknesses…

Revelation A loser is someone — individual or group — who cannot build snowmobiles when facing uncertainty and unpredictable change; Whereas, A winner is someone —  individual or group — who can build snowmobiles and employ them in an appropriate fashion, when facing uncertainty and unpredictable change. Snowmobiles? I’ll explain in a minute. First… Let’s…