Category: Research

The best trades are the ones in which you have all three things going for you: fundamentals, technicals, and market tone. First, the fundamentals should suggest that there is an imbalance of supply and demand, which could result in a major move. Second, the chart must show that the market is moving in the direction…

The following is an excerpt taken from our latest weekly note that was sent to Macro Ops Collective members.We’re going to cover a lot in this week’s report. We’ve got trade wars, trade wars, and some more trade wars… Regulatory action against tech giants… A look at sentiment and technicals which are setting up for a…

Yardeni’s Boom-Bust Barometer (BBB) pitched to 18-month lows last week (dotted red line below).The BBB is comprised of the CRB industrial raw materials spot index divided by the four-week average of initial unemployment claims. It’s a fairly reliable stock market indicator which makes sense seeing as how rising raw material prices and a strengthening labor…

(Note: This is an excerpt from a note sent to Collective Members earlier today.) I want to share some quick notes on this selloff, the trade war and potential risks, some portfolio updates, along with an earnings update from our value guy, Mr. Bean, on Construction Partners (ROAD) latest quarter. Let’s start with the trade…

The pendulum of the mind alternates between sense and nonsense. ~ Carl Jung Politics is a pendulum whose swings between anarchy and tyranny are fueled by perennially rejuvenated illusions. ~ Einstein Stephen Buhner wrote in his book “The Secret Teachings of Plants” the following: The physical Universe is an aggregate of frequencies. – Buckminster Fuller…

Here’s a clip from a MO Collective trade alert I wrote back in May of last year on Disney (DIS).   Today we’re putting on a large position in Disney (DIS). This is a trade I’ve been thinking about for a while. The chart is what first caught my eye. Here it is on a…

Target Hospitality (TH): Leader in Vertically Integrated Specialty AccommodationsTarget Hospitality is the largest vertically integrated specialty rental and hospitality services company in the United States. The company owns an extensive network of geographically relocatable rental accommodation units comprised of ~13,000 beds across 22 sites serving the country’s highest producing oil and gas basins.Most of the…

I want to talk Minsky and the Levy/Kalecki Profit EquationThis may sound a bit heady, but don’t worry. We’re going to break it all down Barney style and then walk you through how you can use the frameworks for understanding the current environment in order to better assess the probabilities of potential outcomes (ie, gauge…

I was going to send out a note today where I dissect one of my favorite Bruce Kovner quotes and then get into how we can use Brier scores to make better probabilistically weighted market bets and combat two of our worst enemies, overconfidence and confirmation bias — the recent Invest Like The Best podcast…