Category: Research
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A Golden Macro Opportunity
Yesterday, I talked about the massive vol compression I’m seeing across a number of major macro instruments — most notably FX dollar pairs and gold — along with how these compression regimes set the stage for expansionary ones (i.e., Giant Macro Trends).Here’s the chart of gold again which shows its volatility (as measured by the…
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There’s a BIG Macro Move Brewing in Markets
A favorite market-related book of mine is Hedgehogging by Barton Biggs. If you haven’t read it, I highly recommend you do so. It’s excellent. One of the many entertaining stories Biggs shares in the book is a conversation he has with a very successful Macro Fund Manager, named “Tim”.Tim shares with Biggs a key pillar of…
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Yield Curve Inversion: Why This Time is Different
It’s happened… The 10yr/3m yield curve has inverted. The party is over folks. Sell your stocks, horde your cash, pack your bags and go home. Recession is imminent… The mainstream financial news and twitter “market experts” have nailed it. The top is in.It’s nice knowing that calling a recession is this easy. There’s really nothing…
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Value Ventures: A Prologue
Hello Macro Ops World! Like the first program to run on the original Macintosh, my introduction into this growing community of people striving to be the best they can be inside and out of the markets isn’t fancy. My name is Mr. Bean. No, it’s not the name I wanted — I would’ve rather preferred…
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Shippers: The Most Bombed Out Sector of the Market
Sir John Templeton used to quip that “People are always asking me where the outlook is good, but that’s the wrong question… The right question is: Where is the outlook the most miserable? Invest at the point of maximum pessimism.” If you want deep value and a wide margin of safety then you have to…
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Bear Markets and Liquidity Conditions
Credit spreads have narrowed significantly since the beginning of the year. Check out the graph below via Citi Bank.Credit spreads and stocks move together because all market moves are governed by liquidity conditions. When liquidity conditions tighten (credit spreads widen) the cost of capital goes up, and therefore the returns investors receive in equities relative…
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The Fed Put Is Real and China Stimulates
In our December MIR titled Genghis John and Building Snowmobiles during the midst of the market rout I wrote the following noting the key macro variables we didn’t and couldn’t know at the time: We can’t predict with high certainty exactly how the Fed will react to slowing global data ex. US We can’t predict…
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A Macro Update And My Stock Shopping List For 2019
Today’s Note and Stock Shopping ListHope everyone is recovering well from their New Years celebrations and ready to dive back into markets for the year. Just wanted to share with you some quick thoughts on the market, the dollar, and gold. And then at the end, I’ve got our Stock Shopping List with our favorite…
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Full Capitulation In US Stocks Not Here Yet
Following is just a short note with some things I’m looking at in the market and what I want to see before we start getting more aggressive on the long side. First, the Russell small-cap index is knocking up against major support this week in its long-term trend line, 50mma (red line), and lower Bollinger…
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A Special Announcement and Market Update
Just wanted to share some exciting news and a quick market update. But first, I’d like to wish everybody a very Merry Christmas and a happy holidays! It means a lot to us here at MO that you’ve chosen to be apart of the MO tribe and for that, I want to extend to you…