Category: Research
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Misconceptions, Mispricings, and Models: A look at today’s market
I like to look for things (beliefs and narratives) that the market believes but that just aren’t so… These false narratives drive price action, spurring greater narrative adoption, which then drives prices further away from the underlying fundamentals (aka, reality). A trend not based on supporting fundamentals is not sustainable. It’s a mispricing; which is…
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Big Hitters, The Dangers of “Resulting”, and a 3x Bagger…
Alex here with this week’s Macro Musings.As always, if you come across something cool during the week, shoot me an email at alex@macro-ops.com and I’ll share it with the group.Recent Articles/Videos — Rising Interest Rates & Discovery (DISCA) — AK reviews the broader market, analyzes what rising rates mean, and also covers our long Discovery…
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Rising Interest Rates & Discovery Inc. (DISCA)
Interest Rates Rising!? Discovery Channel Stock Pick AnalysisToday we’re going to review the broader market (SPY), see what rising rates (TLT) mean, and then we’ll also go over our long Discovery (DISCA) thesis.The broader market is looking strong. Small-caps just hit new highs and overall breadth is solid. Sentiment reset itself and now it’s acting…
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Principles, Privacy Wars, And Psilocybin
Tyler here with this week’s Macro Musings.As always, if you come across something cool during the week, shoot me an email at tyler@macro-ops.com and I’ll share it with the group.Recent Articles/Videos — Vol And The SPX — AK covers the recent bull action in the equity indices and discusses whether it will last.Intuition In Trading…
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Is Volatility Signalling Higher Prices?
Let’s quickly review the overall stock market and see what’s going on. We’ve had some real nice bullish action over the last week, but is it going to last?Well the S&P 500 (SPY) has officially broken out of its consolidation from the beginning of the year. Price cleared its downtrend line and the prior high…
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Will China’s Slowdown Wreak Havoc On Markets?
The following is an excerpt from our Macro Intelligence Report (MIR). If you’d like to learn more about the MIR, click here.Last July, we laid out the case for why China is the most important macro factor this cycle. We talked about why it’s a debt riddled neutrino bomb waiting to go boom… But… we…
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Review: Cameco Corporation (CCJ), Fiat Chrysler (FCAU), Yatra.com (YTRA)
We’ve got 3 stocks for you today that our team is bullish on — Cameco Corporation (CCJ), Fiat Chrysler (FCAU), and Yatra.com (YTRA).Cameco Corporation (CCJ) is one of the largest uranium producers in the world, which makes it a great way to play the coming rebound in the uranium market. Back in 2011 the Fukushima…
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Reflexivity, A Billion Dollar Race Track Gambler and Algorithmic Information Dynamics
Tyler here with this week’s Macro Musings.The May Macro Intelligence Report (MIR) is coming out near the closing bell today. In it we’ll have our latest thoughts on the US dollar, China’s macro deleveraging, and how all this relates to stock markets around the world. If you want to stay plugged into the macro narrative…
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Ed Seykota’s “Fundamentals” and a Massive Pain Trade
Last week we talked about how the market derives its expectations (it simply extrapolates current data ad infinitum) along with why it’s important to view macro data at the second derivative level (the rate of change leads important inflections in the trend). A process that looks something like this.We used these mental models to comment…
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From Bullish To Bearish In Gold?
Today we’re going to revisit gold. I’m going to explain what’s going on in the gold (GLD) market and what trades we put on last week in the Macro Ops portfolio to take advantage.Earlier this month I released a video explaining why our team was bullish on this precious metal. But at the end of…