Category: Research
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George Soros’ Boom Bust Framework Explained
The Palindrome (Soros) once said, “The generally accepted view is that markets are always right — that is, market prices tend to discount future developments accurately even when it is unclear what those developments are. I start with the opposite view. I believe the market prices are always wrong in the sense that they present…
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Carry, The Death of Gold, and Antimodels
Tyler here with this week’s Macro Musings.As always, if you come across something cool during the week, shoot me an email at tyler@macro-ops.com and I’ll share it with the group.Recent Articles/Videos — Explaining The Yield Curve — AK covers what’s going on with the yield curve including why it’s flattening, what that flattening means, and…
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A Millennial Boom in Asia and an Asymmetric Opportunity in Precious Metals
Alex here with this week’s Macro Musings.As always, if you come across something cool during the week, shoot me an email at alex@macro-ops.com and I’ll share it with the group.Articles I’m reading — Jeff Bezos’ latest annual letter to shareholders is fresh off the press. His letters are always worth a read, and this one…
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Tight Labor Markets Versus Crippling Debt
The following is an excerpt from our Macro Intelligence Report (MIR). If you’d like to learn more about the MIR, click here.The potential for trade wars and tech regulation is increasing. And these are real market risks. But so far, it’s all talk and speculation. They remain low probability events. We need to closely monitor…
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Inflation, The Milky Way, And An Oil Trade
Alex here with this week’s Macro Musings.As always, if you come across something cool during the week, shoot me an email at alex@macro-ops.com and I’ll share it with the group.Special Event Tomorrow, Don’t Miss It! — Tyler’s hosting a special event this Saturday, April 14th at 2PM EST. He’s going to show you guys exactly…
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Let Loose The Dogs of War… How To Navigate Late-Cycle Market Volatility
Paul Tudor Jones once said, “You look at every bear market and they’ve always basically occurred because of an uptick in inflation and an uptick in interest rates.” PTJ is right… Those of you familiar with our debt-cycle framework know that the Fed drives the business cycle by raising or lowering the cost of money…
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When Is The Next Bear Market? Evaluating Risk Premium Spreads
Today we’ll measure the current risk premium in the market. We’ll take a look at risk premium spreads and see how much longer this bull has to run. Make sure you review this video that explains risk premium spreads before continuing: When the Fed lowers interest rates, it affects the risk premium of every asset class.…
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Trader War Stories, The Green Lumber Fallacy, And Bitcoin Short Sales
Tyler here with this week’s Macro Musings.As always, if you come across something cool during the week, shoot me an email at tyler@macro-ops.com and I’ll share it with the group.Recent Articles/Videos — Buy Gold? — AK reviews what’s happening in the precious metals space.Articles I’m reading —There’s a brand new website out called Where Is…
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Should You Buy Gold Here?
Should you be buying gold (GLD) right now? With all this crazy market volatility is it a good idea? If you look at the monthly chart of gold it’s about to complete an inverted head and shoulders pattern. And if it does, we should see prices trend higher. What’s interesting about a break higher in…
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A Dragging Anchor — Higher Rates and Tighter Risk-Premia Spreads
I want to share a recent note from Morgan Stanley with you guys. The note discusses the rise in front end rates and what it means for the relative attractiveness of other assets. I think it’s largely to blame for the repricing of risks we’re seeing in markets right now. And it’s going to be…