Category: Research
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A.I. Bets & All-Time Low Bond Volatility (Macro Musings)
Tyler here with this week’s Macro Musings.Just a reminder, we’re releasing the newest issue of our Macro Intelligence Report (MIR) early next week. In it we’re covering a basket of agricultural stocks that are ready to rip just like our IPI play (if you don’t know what I’m talking about, read our article below). Phase…
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Preparing For The Macro Regime Shift To The “Overheat Phase”
Legendary speculator, Jesse Livermore, credits the following realization with transforming his trading game and turning him into one of the greats. He said: Tape reading was an important part of the game; so was beginning at the right time; so was sticking to your position. But my greatest discovery was that a man must study…
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Macro Ops 2017 Mid-Year Performance Review Part 2 – Spec Ops
(You can read Part 1 of our performance review here.)Return Metrics *Through last full trading week of JulyYTD: 23.41%12-Month Return: 35.58%Inception: 41.84%Annual Vol: 7.50%Sharpe Ratio: 3.00Max DD: -1.92%Tyler from Macro Ops here. Spec Ops has been crushing it since inception. It’s made over 40% with a max drawdown under 2%.
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Macro Ops 2017 Mid-Year Performance Review Part 1 – Strat Ops
To others, being wrong is a source of shame; to me, recognizing my mistakes is a source of pride. Once we realize that imperfect understanding is the human condition, there is no shame in being wrong, only in failing to correct our mistakes. ~ George Soros
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Principles and a Chinese Bezos (Macro Musings)
The following is a sample of our weekly Friday Macro Musings — a list of what our team is reading/studying/trading this week. Our Recent Articles/Interviews — Financial Sense Podcast – I did a short chat with Chris Sheridan on the Financial Sense podcast last week.Archimedes Dollar Smile – I dig into the greenback and take…
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China Won’t Roll Over Until Liquidity Tightens
This year on October 18th The Communist Party of China will kick off their 19th National Congress and set the leadership for the next five years.It’s an extremely fragile time for incumbents. During this Congress a group of party representatives will review a report from President Xi on what has been achieved in the past…
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The Gold Bugs Were Wrong
Operator Tyler here. The Gold Bugs were way too early on their inflation call. Ever since the start of QE, countless Austrian economic gold bugs have been warning about a tidal wave of inflation that will debase our hard earned savings. Their fear mongering is what sent gold up to nearly $2,000 an ounce.But the…
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US Dollar Smile Theory: Deep-Dive for Traders
Give me a place to stand,and a dollar that’s trending,and I can move the world~ Archimedes Archimedes, the Greek tinkerer, knew of the US dollar’s importance to global macro well over 2200 years ago, decades before Fed Chair Yellen was born. A man ahead of his time. If you’re one of the very few who…
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The Merril Lynch Investment Clock
One of the most valuable mental models we use in our global macro research process is Merill Lynch’s Investment Clock.It’s a simple yet useful framework for understanding the various stages of a business cycle and which asset classes perform best in each stage. A similar framework is used at Bridgewater Associates, one of the most…
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Where Oil Prices Are Headed
Oil has been in my “too hard” bucket the last six months. I couldn’t identify any catalyst that could drive it out of its trading range. I mostly expected it to chop around which has turned out to be the case. But I figured it’s time I revisit oil and see if there’s anything on…