Category: Research
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A Corn/Soybean Spread Trade
The following is straight from Operator Jose, a member of the Macro Ops Hub. The Corn to Soybeans Ratio is very important to American farmers. In normal conditions, it’s a key factor that helps them decide how much Soybeans or Corn they’ll put into the ground. Both crops compete for the same acreage area. I…
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Gaia: A Booming New-Age Streaming Service Run By A Zen-Monk CEO
When the median market PE multiple is at its highest level in history and heading higher, it’s nearly impossible to find investments that have long-term holding potential. Stock market tops are a trader’s purgatory — it’s far too early to start shorting, but going long is just as much of a crapshoot. With that said,…
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It’s Over
French elections are over. The Populist hydra has been slain (for now) and the world has taken a step back from a repeat of pre-WW2 political turmoil. Center globalist Macron bulldozed the “French Trump”, winning 66.1% of the vote.Macron did very well among the rich and educated white collar demographic. Le Pen on the other…
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Europe’s Big Test
A large impetus to the next thrust higher in European equities will be the final round of French elections this Sunday. We’ve covered the rise of populism and how it affects markets for some time now… If Macron should win Sunday, as we expect, the populist threat will likely recede for the time being. The…
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Le Pen Is The Last Thing Standing Between Equity Bulls And The Promised Land
The Trump-flation narrative has driven U.S. stocks to valuations last seen in the tech bubble. On a relative value basis, Europe is a bit more appealing. As a result, hedge funds have been increasing their equity exposure to Europe since early 2017. The Fed is also in the middle of a rate hiking cycle while…
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Profiting From French Election Volatility
Attempting to predict the outcome of an election is a fool’s errand — we don’t bother with it. But that doesn’t mean we can’t make money off the vote… Over the last few weeks we’ve discussed the reasons for the rise of populism and how it’s impacted the false trend in European equities. We explained…
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Trading A Le Pen Win In The French Elections
Success in the markets requires thinking in possibilities. A great trader understands the permanent information deficit he’s faced with and why it makes market prediction impossible. All he can do is plan for a range of reasonable outcomes and adjust his strategy as new information presents itself. In the latest issue of our Macro Intelligence…
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Populism & Europe’s False Trend
One of my favorite sci-fi series is The Foundation Trilogy by Isaac Asimov. The book was first published in 1951 and is a grand “space opera” that takes place in the distant future. At the heart of the series (and what makes it so interesting) is the fictional philosophy of “psychohistory”. Psychohistory is a blend…
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Is The Dollar About To Break?
A couple of my favorite quotes from legendary trader Bruce Kovner are: What I am really looking for is a consensus the market is not confirming. I like to know that there are a lot of people who are going to be wrong. As an alternative approach, one of the traders I know does very…
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A Dovish Hike and a Third Step Before a Stumble?
The following is an excerpt from our weekly Market Brief. If you’re interested in learning more about Market Briefs and the Macro Ops Hub, click here.The Fed hiked on Wednesday as expected, bringing the Fed Funds rate to a whopping 1%. The market, with its rose colored glasses in full effect, interpreted the hike as…