Category: Research
-
Hawkier Fed, Drowning Oil, and Insiders Jumping Ship
The following is an excerpt from our weekly Market Brief. If you’re interested in learning more about Market Briefs and the Macro Ops Hub, click here.The Fed is going to hike this Wednesday. They’ve made that clear. But why the complete reversal in tone since their last meeting?The answer is obviously because of the Fed’s unspoken…
-
Uncertainty Is Good For The Stock Market
The following is an excerpt from our weekly Market Brief. If you’re interested in learning more about Market Briefs and the Macro Ops Hub, click here.Here’s an interesting question: Is the Trump administration’s erratic policy and governing style bullish or bearish for stocks? Lately, I’ve read a number of analyst notes talking about how the current…
-
Low Volatility Begets Low Volatility. Here’s Why…
The following is an excerpt from our monthly Macro Intelligence Report (MIR). If you’re interested in learning more about the MIR, click here.The trading community has been yapping away about the VIX trading sub-11 and the extreme number of speculative shorts involved. They’re saying it’s gotta burst higher. Their proclamations are presented with a chart like…
-
Why Equities Are NOT Overvalued: The Relative Risk-Premium Spread
The following is an excerpt from our monthly Macro Intelligence Report (MIR). If you’re interested in learning more about the MIR, click here. Some investors, desperate for better yield, have been reaching not for a new Wall Street product but for a very old one–common stocks. Finding the yield on cash unacceptably low, people who have…
-
China’s Mundell-Fleming Trilemma
You’re probably familiar with the story of how Soros and Druckenmiller “broke the Bank of England” in 92’. The two bet against the pound believing that it couldn’t maintain its peg to the Deutsche Mark in the European Exchange Rate Mechanism (ERM). They were right. The Bank of England was forced to stop defending the…
-
The Most Explosive Stocks of 2017 (IPI, LPG, WLL, CCJ, URRE, CENX)
Wanna buy SPY? You’re better off torching your cash instead. At least you’ll get a viral instagram video out of it. The largest 500 stocks have been uptrending for the last 8 years and have little room left to go…
-
Trump And The Dollar
The following is an excerpt from our weekly Market Brief. If you’re interested in learning more about Market Briefs and the Macro Ops Hub, click here.
-
Understanding Why Currencies Move: Vicious and Benign Circles
Let’s talk about currencies. The different types of currencies and the various roles they play in the global financial system. Because this topic is complex and I don’t want to get lost in the weeds, I’ll be making broad sweeping generalizations while focusing on the key points that matter. My plan is to do this…
-
A Dangerous Populist Feedback Loop
Most are familiar with the term “pavlovian response”. Here’s a short explanation via Wikipedia:
-
Peak Bonds Interview With Financial Sense
Last week Tyler linked up with our friend Cris Sheridan at Financial Sense to discuss the peak in the bond market. The last time they talked in July, Tyler explained the asymmetric risks bond investors were facing with yields hitting a lower bound. We saw the result of that asymmetry over the last month as…