Category: Research
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2016 Is Shaping Up to Be a Year of Market Volatility After a Difficult 2015
2016 is shaping up to be a volatile year for financial markets. In order to get an understanding of how major asset classes will perform this year, let’s review their performance in 2015.
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Shorting Wheat Feels Like A Trap
There are many factors depressing the price of wheat including the general commodity bear market, wheat’s global supply glut, a strong dollar, and good weather. But with overwhelmingly bearish expectations for wheat, is there any room left to the downside? We believe expectations are too bearish and that El Niño is a strong candidate to…
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Singapore Can’t Escape The Asian Currency Wars (Long USD/SGD)
The yuan devaluation will put upward pressure on USD/SGD. The MAS must react to keep their economy from contracting. Singapore is very vulnerable to currency shifts due to a large import/export market. Singapore, an economy known for its disciplined monetary and fiscal policy, has managed to get caught in the crossfire of a currency war…
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Apple: There Will Be No Asian Miracle
Although cash flush, AAPL isn’t exciting investors anymore Its growth story hinges on China, where the macro picture is deteriorating India shows lukewarm demand as well AAPL isn’t innovating like they used to and is instead depending on stock buybacks
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Drop That Chicken! (BRFS Short)
Brazil’s economic and political climate are toxic for its companies. BRF is closely tied to Brazil’s economy. Where Brazil goes, so does BRF. BRF’s margins are being attacked on all sides which has in turn hurt its bottom line. Brazil is a mess. With a toxic economic and political environment, it is not a good…
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This Bull Market Is Over… Done… Dead: 3 Indicators Pointing Towards Major Trouble Ahead
We watch a whole host of macro indicators; they give us a peek under the hood of markets and the global economy. The thing about these indicators is that they are slow moving — they’re not something that need to be checked every day, nor every week.98% of the time, these indicators point to smooth…
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Extremely Important News Just Came Out Of China – Here’s How To Play It
Important market news came out this weekend, and surprisingly (or perhaps not so) it has received little notice. I’m talking about the PBoC’s statement released Friday, signaling that they are looking to break the peg to the dollar and rebalance against a currency basket. Here’s the news, via The Financial Times: China has paved the…
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Par Pacific’s Recent Share Offering And Price Decline Doesn’t Make It Any Less Valuable
It’s been a wild few weeks for Par Pacific Holdings (PARR).After a major move to the upside caused by strong Q3 results, PARR plummeted almost 14% on November 23rd on news of a brand new share offering.PARR announced that it was selling 3.4M common shares at $22/share in a registered direct offering. At $22, these…
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Is Oil Black Gold Or Fool’s Gold? We Think It’s The Latter, Here’s Why
The following excerpt and image below are from Carl Richards in a New York Times Blog post: The recency bias is pretty simple. Because it’s easier, we’re inclined to use our recent experience as the baseline for what will happen in the future. In many situations, this bias works just fine, but when it comes…
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The 3 Reasons Druckenmiller is Bullish On Amazon and Why You Should Be Too
Legendary hedge fund manager Stanley Druckenmiller had a lot to say at the recent New York Times Dealbook conference. When The Druck speaks, you should listen.One of his more interesting segments involved him proclaiming his love for Amazon. But these aren’t just words, Druck tends to put his money where his mouth is. According to…