Category: Research

This dead weight of conventional wisdoms encourages the idea that the currencies are complex and sophisticated. But once you strip away all the rationalizations and conventions that have no basis in reality, you discover the truth: which is that the currency markets are simple. And, so far from being highly sophisticated, they are, as I…

Remember that big stack poker is a game of patience. You don’t have to make a big play in every marginal situation that comes along, just as a good hitter in baseball doesn’t have to swing at balls outside the strike zone. Wait for good solid situations before making big plays. ~ Dan Harrington In…

The concept that a market’s discounting mechanism is based on speculator participation, not price, is the most important thing that I know. ~ Jason Shapiro, “Unknown Market Wizards” In this week’s Dirty Dozen [CHART PACK] we update the end-of-month technical, sentiment & positioning, and macro outlook for the broader US market (hint: odds still favor…

I’ve received too many DMs, emails, and texts over the weekend to not talk about the… I don’t even know what to call it… temporary insurrection? Got cold feet attempted coup? “I’m going to overthrow the power structures within Russia, J/K, I’ll see myself out now mkay, bye” Kabuki theater performed by Prioghzin? But before…

If I had to reduce all the components of my methods to a single phrase, it would be thinking in essentials. ~  Victor Sperandeo In this week’s Dirty Dozen [CHART PACK], we talk bullish monthly moves, even more bullish volatility compression breakouts, tempered by short-term pullback expectations, then discuss the outperforming Greeks, some big moves…

There is a very important difference between being a theoretical contrarian and dealing with it in practical terms. In order to win as a contrarian, you need the right timing and you have to put on a position in the appropriate size. If you do it too small, it’s not meaningful; if you do it…

There was no shortage of terror and despair in the financial markets… It was all a bit reminiscent of the fable about the little boy who cried wolf. By the time one finally appeared, most people had lost their capacity to believe and be alarmed.~ Louis Rukeyser In this week’s Dirty Dozen [CHART PACK], we…

Looking at portfolios, think deeply about process over outcome. If you do something the right way enough times, you’ll win. ~ Dan Loeb In this week’s Dirty Dozen [CHART PACK], we talk about stubborn bears, further upside in risk assets, make the case for a small-caps catch up play, cover one sided positioning in bonds,…

I never lock myself down to investing in one style or in one country because the greatest trade in the world could be happening somewhere else. My advice is to make sure that you do not become too much of an expert in one area. Even if you see an area that is inefficient today,…