Category: Theory And Training
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How The Capital Cycle Works
The capital cycle is one of the most important economic models to understand. In short, the capital cycle refers to how investments flood into high-return businesses during economic upswings and then flee when returns fall below the cost of capital. Let’s dig into how this works by first discussing another cycle: debt. Bridgewater’s Debt Cycle…
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Expected Value (EV) & Bayesian Analysis In Trading
An alternative title for a trader is “professional uncertainty manager.” Trading is a business of possibilities, not certainties. Despite our best efforts to predict financial markets, we’ll inevitably be wrong time and time again. Many of our bets will lose purely due to bad luck or unforeseen circumstances. It doesn’t matter if they were objectively…
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Guerilla Speculation
The following is an excerpt from our weekly Market Brief. If you’re interested in learning more about Market Briefs and the Macro Ops Hub, click here. “If you wait by the river long enough, the bodies of your enemies will float by.” “He will win who knows when to fight and when not to fight.” “If…
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Plan Your Trades And Trade Your Plan
The following is part 3 of our 3-part psychology series. You can read part 1 here and part 2 here. Clearly our biology and the biases that come with it are hazardous to our financial health. But how exactly do we solve this problem? The trick is to plan your trades and trade your plan.…
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Goals, Expectations, & Inner Alignment In Trading
Why Do You Trade?It’s important to understand the true drivers behind why you trade the markets. The answer is different for everyone. We all have different circumstances, wants, wishes, and desires. Find yours.Below are common reasons people get involved: Entertainment Gambling Staying Informed About Economic and Political Developments Intellectual Pursuit/Curiosity Side Income Primary Income Advising…
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How to Avoid Cognitive Biases In Trading
The following is part 2 of our 3-part psychology series. To read part 1, click here. On top of rampant emotions and a dire need to “fit in”, our biological evolution also had another side-effect. It made us lazy. Back in the day we were faced with an endless cycle of feast and famine. We’d…
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Understanding The Difference Between Alpha, Beta, & Cash Returns
At their highest level, investment returns can be subdivided into three components: the cash rate, beta, and alpha. return = cash + beta + alpha The cash rate is the base interest rate controlled by central banks. Every other asset is priced off this rate, including stocks and bonds.A majority of the time stocks and…
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Best Global Macro Trading Books: A Reading List for Investors
The successful macro investor must be some magical mixture of an acute analyst, an investment scholar, a listener, a historian, a river boat gambler, and be a voraciousreader. Reading is crucial.~ Barton Biggs After being asked countless times about the best books to read when it comes to markets and trading, I finally decided to create…
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Achieve Market Mastery Through Fallibilism And Perspectivism
Macro Ops is dedicated to one thing: mastering the markets.But the path towards mastery isn’t linear. It’s a messy one that requires constant iteration, observation, backtracking, and improvement. Ray Dalio has a good visual for it: The loops in the path are the necessary pain points that come with the journey. In order to push…
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Why Our Evolutionary Biology Works Against Us In Markets
“I think investment psychology is by far the most important element, followed by risk control, with the least important consideration being the question of where you buy and sell.” ~Tom Basso, Market Wizard A strong psychological foundation is the key to successful investing. The human mind is a powerful, complex tool that quickly turns into…