Author: evencio.alvarez14@gmail.com
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Musings: The Market, To Be Commanded, Must Be Obeyed
Alex here with your latest Friday Macro Musings. Latest Articles — Your Monday Dirty Dozen [CHART PACK] — We look at the trend in global PMIs and what that’s meant for sector returns going forward, plus we look at falling oil demand and dropping rig counts, and end with a look at some lending data…
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Part 2: #Recession2020, Really? A Review of the Data
I’ve got some bad news…According to this guy, there’s at least a 70% chance we enter a recession next year, maybe sooner.It’s not just James of “Financial Education”. It’s literally every popular social media influencer on youtube predicting a major slowdown in the economy over the next 12-months.I guess it’s time to sell our longs…
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Part 1: The Tape Tells All
We kick off our series of imagining alternate scenarios and evaluating the weight of the evidence by starting with the most important thing, the tape.I’m going to walk you through my process for looking under the hood at the broader supply and demand forces driving underlying price-action in the averages and what the technicals are…
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Q3 Letters, Russian Stocks and P/E Misconceptions
There’s four major holidays we like to celebrate at Value Hive. Q1, Q2, Q3 and Q4 Investor Letters. This month we get our Q3 batch of letters. The next three Value Hive editions will be chock full of these letters. We’ll cover new positions, recently exited positions and market outlooks from our favorite value managers. Here’s…
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Ditch the Predictions and Play the Odds
We are in the business of making mistakes. The only difference between the winners and the losers is that the winners make small mistakes, while the losers make big mistakes. ~ Ned Davis When I became a winner, I said, “I figured it out, but if I’m wrong, I’m getting the hell out, because I…
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Your Monday Dirty Dozen [CHART PACK] #3
It is important to see distant things as if they were close and to take a distanced view of close things.~ Miyamoto Musashi, The Book of Five Rings [1645CE] Good morning!In this week’s Dirty Dozen [CHART PACK] we look at the trend in global PMIs and what that’s meant for sector returns going forward, plus…
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Musings: A Physicist Who Trounced the Market and “a Sh*t in the IPO Pond”
Alex here with your latest Friday Macro Musings. Latest Articles — Your Monday Dirty Dozen [CHART PACK] — We look at more short-term sell signals indicating further downside ahead, a massive collapse in global auto demand, a profit contraction in Germany and a possible recession in Mexico, plus some unprofitable IPOs and 230-years of global…
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Spooky Times for WeWork, Zero Fees and More!
Happy October! This month means Pumpkin Spice Lattes, apple orchards and pumpkin carvings. Speaking of October, we’ve got some spooky news for a few companies in this week’s Value Hive! Forever 21 files for bankruptcy. WeWork halts their IPO. Brokerage companies race to zero commissions, and more!Make sure to subscribe to this newsletter so you…
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Your Monday Dirty Dozen [CHART PACK] #2
The market anticipates, while the news exaggerates. ~ Bob Farrell Good morning!In this week’s Dirty Dozen [CHART PACK] we look at more short-term sell signals indicating further downside ahead, a massive collapse in global auto demand, a profit contraction in Germany and a possible recession in Mexico, plus some unprofitable IPOs and 230-years of global…
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Musings: Murder, Regression to the Mean, and a Stock Ripe for a Short…
Alex here with your latest Friday Macro Musings. Latest Articles — Your Monday Dirty Dozen [CHART PACK] — We look at MORE bearish positioning across equities, fund managers buying protection against a fall at a record rate, signs of an intermediate top in gold, and macro indicators that say a recession is still a long…